The US is among countries with the highest gains in annual inflation from February, when the Middle East conflict began, the International Monetary Fund said in a blog post Monday.
The US saw a jump of more than 1.5 percentage points in headline inflation, with only France and Italy recording higher increases, the IMF said.
Last week, US data showed annual inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2% in May, driven by higher energy prices in the aftermath of the Iran war.
The US and Iran have agreed to end their war and reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz, but analysts remained skeptical as the deal faces potential implementation risks.
Fertilizer and food costs are also on the rise, increasing the risk of food insecurity, the IMF said. While higher oil prices are accelerating inflation across many economies, medium-term expectations remain well-anchored.
"The combination of economic resilience and technological advancements have helped to cushion the impact of the energy supply shock on growth at the global level and there have been bright spots within regions," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. "But there are countries that are harder hit, largely depending on geography, degree of energy dependence, and available policy space."
The Middle East and North Africa suffered the most severe economic blow from the war, with a two percentage point downward revision to the region's cumulative 2026-2027 growth.
"Oil exporters around the Gulf that are directly affected by the war face steep downward revisions to growth this year, with five out of eight countries seeing outright contractions," Georgieva said.
The Iran war has impacted global financial conditions, but it doesn't signal a slowdown yet, according to the IMF blog.
"We have seen strong economic momentum in the world's biggest economies, the United States and China," Georgieva said.
