Related Articles
Treasury
Bank of Canada Cannot Fix Youth Unemployment, Notes BMO
In a Tuesday speech, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent highlighted the rise in long-term unemployment, especially for those aged 15-24 years, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).The share of the labor force in that age group who have been out of work for a year or more has risen to 1.6%. That's approaching the peaks hit in the wake of the 1982 and 1991 recessions, and is triple the long-run average, noted the bank.It's a very different story for those 25 and over, where the long-term jobless rate is 0.8%, which is right on the long-term average for that age group, stated BMO.Vincent explained that the rise for young people was due to demographic factors, the population surge in 2022-24,cyclical forces as young people are hit first in slowdowns, and structural issues such as employer caution around the implications of Artificial Intelligence.The key message in the speech is that the BoC needs to sort out what the main driver is, and can't just respond with lower rates immediately to such softness, added the bank.
$$CXY
Treasury
Comcast Starts Tender Offers for Some Notes
Comcast (CMCSA) said Wednesday it has commenced cash tender offers to buy its notes maturing between 2027 and 2030, including 2.350% notes due 2027 and 2.650% notes due 2030.Comcast Cable Communications, a subsidiary of Comcast, has also started separate cash tender offers to purchase its 8.500% notes due 2027 and 7.125% notes due 2028, the firm said.Price: $25.78, Change: $+0.63, Percent Change: +2.50%
$CMCSA
Treasury
CIBC Sees Better Growth in Canada to Narrow Provincial Divergences in 2027
Canada's provinces have seen widely divergent fortunes over the past two years, but an improving picture in 2027 should also narrow some of those performance gaps, said CIBC.The balance of this year will see winners and losers from an oil price shock, and some provinces hit by more meaningful headwinds from trade frictions and housing market weakness, writes the bank in a note to clients.Provinces have varying degrees of labor market slack that leaves ample room for growth without threatening an acceleration in inflation, stated CIBC.Housing market activity will continue to be a major source of growth differentiation for provinces, with building still expected to remain weak this year as supply excesses in the condo space and economic uncertainty weigh on activity, pointed out the bank.2027 could see a return to faster rates of building, with per-capita housing starts expected to rise sharply in Ontario after falling for several years, and to a lesser extent in British Columbia, where building was already robust relative to the population, added CIBC.In the near-term, there is scope for some upside and downside surprises versus what provincial budgets assumed for growth this year. There is material fiscal upside for oil-producing provinces, even if crude prices begin to descend in the next few months, while B.C. budget assumptions may have been a touch optimistic, according to the bank.A challenging 2026 will see some other provinces lagging behind forecasts made at budget time, due to the oil price shock, trade frictions, and housing market weakness. But by 2027, at least some tariff relief and lower uncertainty coming out of the trade talks, and an end to the Middle East conflict, could allow provinces that are now lagging to narrow those gaps, it noted.
$$CXY