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Treasury
BMO in The Day Ahead in Canada
Bank of Canada External Deputy Governor Alexopoulos will talk about Artificial Intelligence adoption and its implications for productivity and economic potential on Wednesday.Remarks will be published on the BoC's site at 11:05 a.m. ET, noted the bank.BMO will also be scouring the BoC minutes at 1:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday for further insight into how concerned officials are about persistent inflation, elevated oil prices and slowing economic growth.
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Treasury
Morgan Stanley Sees Bank of Canada on Hold Through 2027
Given weak Canadian growth, soft labor-market dynamics and a benign core inflation backdrop, Morgan Stanley doesn't see the Bank of Canada rushing to normalize policy further.The bank expects the BoC to be on hold over the course of this year and 2027, maintaining the view that policy is "in the right place."According to Morgan Stanley, risks are two-sided: persistently higher oil prices could eventually force hikes, particularly if inflation stays above target for several quarters, while a sharper oil-led global slowdown could prompt renewed easing.In the bank's baseline, growth rises "modestly" above potential only in 2027, so tightening risks are likely deferred until then.
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Treasury
Commerzbank on Overnight News
Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Wednesday highlighted:Markets: United States Treasuries weaker into New York close after soft 10-year auction, stable in Asia. U.S. equities recover into close. E-minis supported amid constructive Asian equities. Key foreign exchange pairs are little changed, Brent falls below US$107/barrel.Fed: Senate confirms Kevin Warsh to Federal Reserve Board of Governors, full confirmation vote for Fed chair still pending. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee says labor markets are stable, but not good.Iran war: President Donald Trump says it's "just a question of time" before Tehran capitulates. U.S. intelligence shows Iran retains substantial missile capabilities (NYT). Tehran repeats five preconditions for resuming talks, including compensation for war damages. Crude shipments from Iran's main export terminal seem to have stopped.==EUROPE:ECB: Governing Council member Joachim Nagel tells Handelsblatt that European Central Bank hikes are "increasingly likely," the economy is no longer in baseline, but moving to an adverse scenario.U.K.: United Kingdom Junior Health Minister Zubir Ahmed resigns, tells Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step aside, 92 Labour members of parliament call for his resignation. Health Minister Wes Streeting to hold talks with Starmer on Wednesday.Germany: Coalition committee ends at midnight without announcing results, plans to advance reforms in the coming weeks, CO2 price to remain stable.France: The central bank (BdF) survey shows expectations of price hikes at their highest since 2022.
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