FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Update: US Equity Indexes Soar, Crude Oil Sinks as Interim Deal Agreed to End Iran War

By

(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data, and political/company news from the first paragraph.)

US equity indexes jumped while crude oil and government bond yields slumped after the US and Iran reached a framework agreement to end the war in the Middle East.

The Nasdaq Composite surged 3% to 26,669.5, with the S&P 500 up 1.9% to 7,571.2, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher by 1.4% to 51,920.8 after midday Monday. Technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary led the gainers, while energy was the standout decliner.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirmed on Sunday that a memorandum of understanding had been reached, with military operations on all fronts set to cease immediately. No text of the MoU has been released, and the duo has offered conflicting accounts of what will follow a signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday, CNN reported.

The peace deal will end the US blockade of Iranian ports and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to multiple media reports. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said the ceasefire in Lebanon - one of Iran's preconditions for a negotiated settlement - has been observed in the memorandum of understanding, Al Jazeera reported.

Israel's defense minister said Monday that the country wouldn't withdraw from land seized in Lebanon, where Israel is fighting the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group, according to a report from the Associated Press.

If Iran abides by its commitments to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and not develop a nuclear weapon, then it will be "reinvited into the world economy," and US sanctions in the region will be loosened, a Stifel note cited US Vice President JD Vance as saying on CNBC on Monday.

Crude oil futures slumped. Front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent slumped 4.3% to $80.61 per barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate slid 4.1% to $83.28 per barrel.

"Whether prices, currently around $13 above pre-war levels, can fall further will depend on several factors, including the pace at which commercial and strategic stockpiles are replenished, how quickly shut-in production can be brought back online, and the extent of any lasting demand destruction caused by a prolonged period of elevated energy prices," Saxo Bank said in a note.

Most US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 1.6 basis points to 4.47% and the two-year lower by 2.5 basis points to 4.06%.

In precious metals, gold futures jumped 2.8% to $4,355.51, while silver futures climbed 3.3% to $70.22.

In company news, Fox (FOX, FOXA) agreed to acquire Roku (ROKU) in a cash-and-stock deal that values the TV streaming platform at about $22 billion, creating a media and technology entity with one of the largest streaming businesses in the US. Shares of Fox slumped 16%, the worst performer on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

In economic news, industrial production rose by 0.1% in May, compared with expectations for a larger 0.3% increase in a Bloomberg-compiled survey, and following an upwardly revised 0.9% increase in April.

The National Association of Home Builders' monthly housing market index fell to 35 in June from a revised 37 in May, compared with expectations for a 37 print in a Bloomberg-compiled poll. The index was still above 32, as reported a year earlier.

The New York Federal Reserve's Empire State manufacturing index fell to 5.7 in June from 19.6 in May, compared with a smaller expected decrease to 13.5 in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The Empire State index is the first manufacturing sector reading for June and suggests a slower pace of expansion.

Related Articles

Asia Markets

Tadawul Shares Start Week Higher on US-Iran Peace Deal Hopes

Saudi Exchange-traded closed Sunday upbeat as the prospects of a US and Iran peace deal pushed the Tadawul All Share Index 0.57% firmly in the green.Investors are patiently waiting for updates regarding the signing of an interim deal that would end the conflict between the US and Iran. US President Donald Trump signaled that the memorandum of understanding would be signed on Sunday.However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated that the peace framework will be signed "in the coming days." An undisclosed senior Iranian official said that the final draft of its deal reportedly includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil sanction waivers, releasing frozen Iranian assets, as well as other nuclear clauses.Looking ahead to the week, the local economic calendar will mostly be empty except for the release of Saudi Arabia's inflation print for May on Monday. Market watchers will also look out for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and economic projections on Wednesday."In terms of Wednesday's FOMC meeting, we expect the Fed to leave monetary policy unchanged, but we do expect a statement that puts greater emphasis on the possibility of an interest rate rise," ING said in a note. "In the press conference, he will likely acknowledge that economic conditions do not justify rate cuts at this time. Nonetheless, he could reiterate his view that, in time, tech investment will boost US productivity, meaning faster growth without generating inflation. That would imply a lower neutral interest rate that justifies lower policy rates over the medium to longer term."Back at home and on the corporate front, Saudi Pharmaceutical Industries and Medical Appliances (SASE:2070), d/b/a Spimaco, shares ticked up 3.58% at closing as it agreed to boost its stake in Arabian Medical Products Manufacturing, or Enayah, to 63% for 45 million Saudi riyals.

^TASISASE:2070
Asia Markets

US Stocks Gain This Week on Iran Deal Progress, Softer Rate Expectations

US equity indexes rose this week as Iran signaled that peace-deal terms with the US are in their final review, inflation data eased rate-increase expectations, and SpaceX (SPCX) shares jumped in their market debut.* The S&P 500 closed at 7,431.46 on Friday, up from 7,383.74 a week earlier. The Nasdaq Composite rose to 25,888.84, from 25,709.53, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced to 51,202.26 from 50,866.78.* Iran is in the final stages of internal deliberations on a peace agreement with the US, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Friday, according to CNN. "Understanding has been reached on the majority of issues," he said.* US core producer prices rose less than expected in May from both April and a year earlier. Core consumer prices also came in softer than forecast on a monthly basis, while the annual reading matched expectations.* FedWatch data late Friday showed a 43% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase in December, little changed from a week earlier. Odds for a September increase fell to 26% from 34%, and October odds dropped to 33% from 40%, indicating reduced expectations for additional increases in H2.* Markets see a near-certain chance the Fed will hold rates steady in June and a 92% probability of no change in July.* Space Exploration Technologies shares opened at $150 on Friday, topping the initial public offering price of $135. The stock closed up 19%.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$SPCX
Asia Markets

Exchange-Traded Funds Rise, US Equities Mixed After Midday

Broad Market IndicatorsBroad-market exchange-traded funds IWM and IVV were higher. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) added 0.7%.US equity indexes traded mixed amid conflicting reports on the terms of a draft deal between Iran and Washington to end the war in the Middle East and Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) making history with its stock market debut.EnergyIShares US Energy ETF (IYE) and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) each rose 1.1%.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) climbed up 1.1%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) rose 0.9%, and iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was up 1%.The State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) advanced 2.1%, and iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) was 2.3% higher.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) added 1.1%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) climbed up 3.4%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), declined 3.3%.CommoditiesCrude oil shed 3.6%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) fell 2%. Natural gas rose 1.3%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was up 1.5%.Gold on Comex gained 2.9%, and the State Street SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) rose 0.3%. Silver advanced 6.1%, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was up 0.7%.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) rose 0.2%. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) added less than 0.1%, and iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) was up 0.3%.The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) was fractionally lower. VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) was 0.3% lower, and the State Street SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) rose 0.4%.HealthcareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) dipped 0.1%, iShares US Healthcare (IYH) fell 0.1%, and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) rose fractionally. IShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) climbed up 0.5%.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) added 0.8%. Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) gained 0.7%, while iShares US Industrials (IYJ) rose 0.8%.CryptocurrencyIn midday activity, bitcoin (BTC-USD) was up 0.8%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) rose 0.8%, ProShares Ether ETF (EETH) fell 0.1%, and ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) was 0.3% higher.

Dow Jones^EEM^EXI^FAS^FAZ^GLD^IBB^IGM^IGV^IPK^IVV^IWMNasdaq Composite^IYE^IYH^IYJ^IYK^IYW^PMR^QQQ^RTH^SOXXS&P 500^SPY^UNG^USO^VDC^VHT^VIS^XLE^XLF^XLI^XLK^XLP^XLV^XRT^XSD$BETH$BITO$EETH