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Update: US Equity Indexes Rise Amid Growing Expectations Fed to Extend Pause After Weak Nonfarm Payrolls

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(Updates with index/price moves and geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)

US equity indexes rose as a surprise drop in nonfarm payrolls lifted the odds for a monetary policy pause in September.

The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.1% to 26,651.4, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% to 7,752.1 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher by 0.2% to 54,015.2.

The July employment report showed nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, compared with the 80,000 jobs increase expected in a Bloomberg-compiled poll. Private payrolls rose by 30,000 in July, the same as in June but below the 82,000 expected. Government sector jobs decreased by 53,000.

Looking past the government decline, the increase in private payrolls was below the lowest forecast, Jefferies Chief US Economist Thomas Simons said in a note. Large declines in leisure and hospitality, retail trade and financial services offset strength in construction and healthcare and social assistance, Simons said, adding that the next move from the Federal Reserve is an interest-rate cut, and most likely in December.

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping its target rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in September surged to 56% on Friday from 45% a day ago and 33% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield down 1.4 basis points to 4.66% and the two-year lower by 4.1 basis points to 4.20%.

Iranian lawmakers are debating the wording of a proposed deal with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz, with US President Donald Trump insisting an agreement is getting closer, Bloomberg reported. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said earlier this week that an understanding with Oman had been reached "in principle," and state TV cited one lawmaker on Friday as saying the final text and details of an agreement with Muscat will be announced "soon," according to the news report.

The Saudi crown prince, Turkish president and Pakistani prime minister have signed a joint defense deal in Mecca stating that "any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all," Al Jazeera reported. Pakistan is one of the few countries in the world with nuclear weapons.

Saudi Arabia expects imminent coordinated attacks from Iraqi militias north of the Gulf state and from Yemen's Houthis from the south under the supervision of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a senior Saudi official told Reuters.

The front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract jumped 1.2% to $78.24 a barrel, and global benchmark North Sea Brent advanced 1.3% to $83.55 a barrel.

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Here are the NZX-listed companies with the biggest gains on Friday.Synlait Milk (NZE:SML): +5%, NZ$0.39Winton Land (NZE:WIN): +2%, NZ$1.13Bankers Investment Trust (NZE:BIT): +2%, NZ$3.52Tourism Holdings (NZE:THL): +2%, NZ$2.91Vulcan Steel (NZE:VSL): +2%, NZ$6.68Serko (NZE:SKO): +2%, NZ$1.68T&G Global (NZE:TGG): +2%, NZ$2.25Ventia Services Group (NZE:VNT): +2%, NZ$7.37Napier Port Holdings (NZE:NPH): +2%, NZ$3.68Michael Hill International (NZE:MHJ): +1%, NZ$13.45

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US Equity Markets End Lower After Crude Oil Prices, Government Bond Yields Rise Again

US equity indexes ended lower Thursday after crude oil prices and government bond yields rose following Iran's warning to Gulf states and clarification on the Hormuz deal with Oman* Iran has made a concerted diplomatic push with Gulf states, warning them explicitly that Tehran will hit their oil, power and water plants unless they convince President Donald Trump to end US strikes on Iran, Reuters reported Thursday. The deal would give Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported Wednesday.* Trump confronted Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at Camp David last week, demanding an explanation as to why he was apparently misled regarding severe munitions shortages, The Washington Post reported Thursday.* Initial jobless claims rose to 199,000 in the week ended Aug. 1 from an upwardly revised 198,000 in the prior week, compared with the 205,000 forecast in a survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg.* Wholesale inventories rose by 0.2% in June, revised downward from a 0.3% increase in the advance reading and following a 0.3% increase in May. Analysts in a Bloomberg-compiled poll expected no revision.* September West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose $2.65 to settle at $77.87 per barrel, while September Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last seen up $3.61 at $83.04.* Motorola Solutions (MSI) shares were up 8.2%, the top gainer on the S&P 500, after the company reported better-than-expected Q2 results.* Honeywell Aerospace's (HONA) shares were down 23%, the worst performer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, after fiscal Q2 earnings fell year-over-year as revenue missed estimates.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$HONA$MSI
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Update: US Equity Indexes Mixed as Technology, Energy Help Blunt Broad-Based Declines

(Updates with index/price moves and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes were mixed after big-tech names partially offset a broadly negative tape, with markets under pressure amid higher government bond yields and crude oil prices ahead of Friday's close.The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.9% to 53,875.2, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% to 7,711.5. The Nasdaq Composite was little changed at 26,361.4. Energy topped the sector charts intraday, followed by technology. Materials and industrials led the decliners.Among companies with a market capitalization of more than $200 billion, three of the top five belonged to either the semiconductor or the semiconductor equipment and materials industries. Shares of Arm (ARM), the biggest outperformer in this category and one of the Nasdaq's leaders, advanced 5%.SpaceX (SPCX), also an outperformer in the mega-caps category, will build a vertically integrated semiconductor fabrication facility in Grimes County, Texas, Governor Greg Abbott said in a statement Thursday. Phase one of the Terafab project includes a capital investment of more than $16.8 billion, he said. Shares of SpaceX climbed 4.2%, one of the top gainers on the Nasdaq.Tech giant Sandisk's (SNDK) shares traded 5.3% lower after dropping more than 10% earlier in the session, following fiscal Q4 results that showed an adjusted earnings and revenue beat. Raymond James adjusted its price target on Sandisk's shares to $2,000 from $1,470.Iran will seek to bar US and Israeli ships from the Strait of Hormuz and require compensation from hostile countries before they're allowed to use it, Bloomberg cited local media reports on a proposed Iran-Oman deal to manage the crucial waterway. The agreement has become key to expectations for a reopening of Hormuz and a resumption of energy flows that have been throttled since the US and Israel attacked Iran in February, the news report said.Iran has made a concerted diplomatic push with Gulf states, warning them explicitly that Tehran will hit their oil, power and water plants unless they convince President Donald Trump to end US strikes on Iran, Reuters reported Thursday.The front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract jumped 3.1% to $77.56 a barrel, and global benchmark North Sea Brent surged 4.1% to $82.68 a barrel.US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield up 4.7 basis points to 4.66% and the two-year higher by 6.2 basis points to 4.24%.

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