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Update: US Equity Indexes Drop as 30-Year Treasury Yield Surpasses Two-Decade High Amid Surging Crude Oil Prices

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(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data, and geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)

US equity indexes fell as strong macroeconomic data and higher crude oil prices boosted expectations for an October interest-rate increase, pushing government bond yields sharply higher.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.1% to 26,906.7, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.3% to 51,381.2, and the S&P 500 fractionally lower at 7,704.51 after midday Thursday.

All but three sectors, energy, communication services and healthcare, slumped. Technology, industrials and materials led the decliners.

In economic news, initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 in the week ended Sept. 19 from an upwardly revised 198,000 in the previous week, compared with expectations for an increase to 200,000 in a survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg. The four-week moving average fell by 1,750 to 202,250.

The Federal Reserve's next interest rate increase could come as early as October as higher oil prices threaten to push inflation further from its 2% target. The probability of a 25 basis-point increase in October stood at 70%, up from 11% a month ago, according to the FedWatch tool.

Most US Treasury yields rose after midday, with the 10-year yield jumping 4.8 basis points to 5.16%, the highest since 2007. The 30-year rate jumped 5.1 basis points to 5.45%, the strongest level since 2004.

A top Iranian military official said Tehran may broaden the war to the Indian Ocean if attacked again by the US or Israel, Bloomberg reported. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, came under attack from Houthis again, the news report said.

The front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract climbed 4.1% to $95.90 per barrel, while the global benchmark North Sea Brent advanced 4% to $107.23 per barrel.

What else is happening in Japan?

Japan

US Equity Markets End Lower as Strong PMI Data Lifts October Rate-Increase Odds

US equity indexes ended lower Wednesday after a surge in private-sector output growth lifted expectations for another interest-rate increase in October and sent government bond yields higher.* S&P Global's flash purchasing managers' index data showed September's composite output gauge increased to 58.4 from 56 in August, marking a fourth straight monthly rise and higher than the consensus of 55.3 in a Bloomberg survey.* There's now a 66.4% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4% to 4.25% in October, up from 55.4% a day earlier and 8.8% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.* US mortgage applications fell 1.5% in the week ending Sept. 18, compared with a decline of 4.1% in the previous week, as the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate increased to 7.12% from 6.97%.* October West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose $2.11 to settle at $92.64 per barrel, while November Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last seen up $4.35 at $103.60.* Paychex (PAYX) shares fell 8.8%, the steepest drop on the S&P 500, after the company reported fiscal Q1 revenue growth in line with market expectations, while management reiterated its full-year outlook amid a tough comparison in the current quarter.* Palo Alto Networks (PANW) shares rose 5%, the top gainer on the S&P 500, a day after the company launched Unit 42 Continuous Frontier AI Defense, an agentic offensive security service, integrating Anthropic's Claude Mythos 5, OpenAI's GPT-5.6-Cyber and open-weight models.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$PANW$PAYX
Japan

Update: US Equity Indexes Drop as Robust Output Growth Galvanizes Fed Rate-Increase Bets

(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data, and geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes fell after a surge in private-sector output growth to the highest in more than five years lifted bets for a back-to-back interest rate increase in October and sent government bond yields sharply higher.The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.1% to 26,939.6, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% to 51,538.2, and the S&P 500 slid 0.7% to 7,708.3 ahead of Wednesday's close. All sectors except industrials and energy declined. Utilities and communication services led decliners.Most US Treasury yields jumped after US private-sector output growth accelerated to a 62-month high in September amid strength in both services and manufacturing, while price pressures intensified. The 10-year yield soared 15.8 basis points to 5.13%, and the two-year rate surged 13.1 basis points to 4.91%.S&P Global's (SPGI) flash purchasing managers' index data released Wednesday showed September's composite output gauge increased to 58.4 from 56 in August, marking a fourth straight monthly rise. The consensus was for 55.3 in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.Traders are now pricing a 69% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise its target rate range for federal funds by 25 basis points to 4% to 4.25% in October, up from 55% a day earlier and 9% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The Fed raised rates by the same magnitude in September.Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian told the United Nations that Tehran will not surrender to the pressures being brought on by the US, while saying he is of the view that diplomacy is the way to end the war, Reuters reported Wednesday. This comes as US President Donald Trump warned on Tuesday that he could annihilate Iran if there is no deal to end the war, but also suggested an agreement could come soon, the news report said.The front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract jumped 1.9% to $92.20 per barrel, while the global benchmark North Sea Brent shot up 4% to $103.18 per barrel amid worsening Iran geopolitics.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500
Japan

US Equity Indexes Fall in Midday Trading

US equity indexes fell in midday trading on Wednesday as oil prices and bond yields gained while traders awaited updates on a potential breakthrough in US-Iran relations ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Washington later today.The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1% to 26,944.1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% to 51,561.9, while the S&P 500 declined by 0.7% to 7,712.7. Utilities and the consumer discretionary sectors led decliners, while the energy sector led the gainers.The US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract gained 2.4% to $92.67 per barrel.US Treasury yields rose across the curve intraday, with the 10-year yield edging up 12.4 basis points to 5.09% and the 30-year rate 8.6 basis points to 5.39%.In economic news, US crude oil stocks, including those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose by 2.6 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 18, following a decrease of 1.0 million barrels in the previous week.Commercial crude oil stocks, excluding SPR inventories, rose by 3 million barrels following a 600,000-barrel decrease in the week prior, and compared to the 690,000-barrel decline expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.Gasoline stocks declined by 1.7 million barrels, compared to the 500,000-barrel increase expected in a Bloomberg survey.The September flash reading of manufacturing conditions from S&P Global rose to a 52-month high of 57 compared with 53.9 in August and an expected reading of 53.7 in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.US mortgage applications fell 1.5% for the week ending September 18, compared with a decline of 4.1% in the week prior, as the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate increased to 7.12% from 6.97% over the same period.In company news, McDonald's (MCD) said Wednesday it will provide $8.5 billion in support to franchisees through 2036 to accelerate restaurant modernization, technology deployment, and operational improvements. Unit expansion is expected to contribute 2.5% to systemwide sales growth in 2027 and moderate to around 2% by 2030, the company stated. Shares of McDonald's fell 6.1% around midday.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$MCD