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Update: US Equity Indexes Decline as Retail Sales Drop Most in 14 Months, Crude Oil Advances on Worsening Iran Geopolitics

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(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data, and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)

US equity indexes fell after retail sales unexpectedly slumped in July, posting the largest monthly drop since May 2025, and crude oil rose amid the Trump administration's plans to impose unprecedented economic pain on Iran.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5% to 26,676.1, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% to 7,780.2 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3% to 53,707.5 after midday Friday. Technology, healthcare and consumer discretionary were among the steepest decliners, while energy led gainers.

Retail sales slid 0.6% amid declines in spending on motor vehicles and at gas stations, following a 0.2% increase in June, the Census Bureau reported Friday. The consensus was 0.1% growth, according to a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

"American consumers took a breather last month, despite the tailwind from rising equity markets," BMO Capital Markets Senior Economist Sal Guatieri said in a separate note. "This, together with a weaker jobs report and subdued core (consumer price index) inflation, raise the odds of the (Federal Open Market Committee) staying patient again in September."

The probability of the Federal Reserve extending its policy pause to September jumped to almost 70% by Friday afternoon, from 56% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool, building on gains after data this week showed headline and core consumer and wholesale price inflation rates declined year over year in July.

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 51.0 in August from 55.2 in July, below expectations for a much smaller decrease to 55.0 in a Bloomberg-compiled survey.

Respondents saw one-year inflation expectations at 4.3%, up from 4.2% in July, while five-year inflation expectations remained at 3.3% for the third straight month.

Most US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield up 5.1 basis points to 4.69%. The two-year yield climbed 1.9 basis points to 4.16%.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US plans to announce measures on Iran next week that have "never been seen," CNN reported. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said the US can sustain its blockade against Iran "indefinitely," Al Jazeera, a Middle Eastern broadcaster, reported.

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz appeared to grind to a near standstill on Friday after two more ships were attacked at the chokepoint, Reuters reported. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company from the United Arab Emirates said its vessels were attacked Thursday evening, the news report said, adding that the UAE government blamed Iran, which made no immediate comment.

Crude oil futures rose, with the front-month US West Texas Intermediate contract climbing 0.9% to $81.96 per barrel and the global benchmark North Sea Brent jumping 1.3% to $88.05 per barrel.

Applied Materials (AMAT) shares retreated 5%, one of the worst performers on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, after the company reported lower free cash flow for the first nine months of the fiscal year as capital expenditures climbed sharply.

Sandisk (SNDK) shares jumped 6.7%, among the top gainers on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, after Wells Fargo and RBC lifted their price targets for the company.

Gold futures advanced 0.5% to $4,440.1, and silver futures edged up less than 0.1% to $65.03.

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Update: US Equity Indexes Rise After Soft Wholesale Price Inflation Print Boosts Odds of Fed Policy-Pause Extension

(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes rose, with the S&P 500 breaking records amid gains in growth sectors, after a soft producer price inflation report raised the likelihood of a sixth straight monetary policy pause in September.The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8% to 26,803.03, and the S&P 500 climbed 0.7% to 7,798.99 on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% to 53,839.99, clawing out of intraday declines. The S&P 500 hit 7,816.70, its highest intraday level ever.Communication services and technology were among the top gainers, while materials led decliners.Among companies with market capitalizations exceeding $200 billion each, eight of the top 10 by returns were in the technology sector Thursday, according to data compiled by Finviz. Sandisk (SNDK), which led the pack with a 14% surge, said it expects revenue to grow in the mid-to-high teens over fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030.Cisco slumped 8.4%, one of the worst performers in the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The tech giant reported flat fiscal Q4 services revenue at $3.79 billion, missing the FactSet-polled consensus of $3.81 billion. On a non-GAAP basis, product gross margin fell to 64.8% from 67.5% a year ago, weighing on total gross margin.The Producer Price Index held steady in July, following a 0.1% decrease in June, versus the 0.2% gain expected in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. Energy prices fell by 3.1% in the month amid a 9.8% slide in natural gas liquids, a 6.7% slump in diesel fuel, and a 5.7% drop in gasoline prices. Excluding food and energy, core PPI climbed 0.2%, still below the 0.3% gain anticipated and a 0.4% increase in June.Annually, PPI was up 4.7% in July, and core PPI increased by 4.2%, both slowing from June.The producer prices data does potentially mitigate "the sense of urgency for the Fed to firm its policy stance, at least in the nearer term, particularly in the aftermath of a weaker-than-expected July employment report," Lindsey Piegza, Stifel's Chief Economist, said in a research note.Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin (non-voter) said uncertainty remains regarding the path of inflation and whether rate increases will be needed to bring it down to the 2% goal or if it will slow on its own.US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield down 4.3 basis points to 4.65%. The two-year yield dropped five basis points to 4.15%.The probability of the Federal Reserve extending its policy pause to September climbed to 65% late Thursday, from 59% a day ago and 45% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Meanwhile, the front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract dropped 2.6% to $81.08 per barrel, and global benchmark North Sea Brent declined 2.4% to $86.89 per barrel as traders weighed a downbeat demand-supply dynamic and a continuing stalemate in the Iran war.US commercial crude oil inventories increased by a staggering 17.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 7, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday. On the same day, the International Energy Agency projected global demand to contract by 1.6 million barrels per day this year, steeper than the 1 million b/d drop seen in July.US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that the military, by rotating its aircraft carriers, can maintain its blockade on Iran "indefinitely," Al Jazeera, a Middle Eastern broadcaster, reported. President Donald Trump and his top officials are returning to a playbook of relying on a steady increase in economic sanctions and a naval blockade to stifle Iran's oil exports, Bloomberg reported.This comes as Iran's military rejected US claims that vessels are passing through the Strait of Hormuz, saying no ship can pass without its permission, the Al Jazeera report said.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$CSCO$SNDK
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Update: US Equity Indexes Mixed as Soft Wholesale Inflation Boosts Odds for Continuing Fed Policy Pause

(Updates with index/price moves and macroeconomic data from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes traded mixed after a weak producer price inflation print lifted bets for a sixth straight monetary policy pause, while declining crude oil prices reflected demand pessimism.The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8% to 26,800.4, and the S&P 500 climbed 0.6% to 7,795.6 after midday Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by less than 0.1% to 53,761.2 as a sharp sell-off in Cisco (CSCO) weighed on the equal-weighted index. Real estate, technology and communication services topped the gainers, while materials led decliners.Cisco slumped 8.5%, one of the worst performers in the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The tech giant reported flat fiscal Q4 services revenue at $3.79 billion, missing the FactSet-polled consensus of $3.81 billion. On a non-GAAP basis, product gross margin fell to 64.8% from 67.5% a year ago, weighing on total gross margin.The Producer Price Index held steady in July, following a 0.1% decrease in June, versus the 0.2% gain expected in a Bloomberg-compiled survey, amid sliding energy and food prices. Energy prices fell by 3.1% in the month, with a 9.8% slide in natural gas liquids, a 6.7% slump in diesel fuel, and a 5.7% drop in gasoline prices. Excluding food and energy, core PPI climbed 0.2%, below the 0.3% gain anticipated and a 0.4% increase in June.Annually, PPI was up 4.7% in July, and core PPI increased by 4.2%, both slowing from June.The probability of the Federal Reserve extending its policy pause to September jumped to 66% on Thursday, from 59% a day ago and 45% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield down 4.7 basis points to 4.65% and the two-year lower by 4.8 basis points to 4.15%.Among companies with market capitalizations exceeding $200 billion each, nine of the top 10 by returns were in the technology sector after midday Thursday, according to data compiled by Finviz. Of those nine firms, seven were related to the semiconductor industry. Sandisk (SNDK) was the leader of the pack, up 16%. Sandisk said it expects revenue growth in the mid-to-high-teens from fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030.The front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract dropped 1.6% to $81.97 per barrel, and global benchmark North Sea Brent declined 1.4% to $87.76 per barrel as traders weighed a downbeat demand-supply dynamic and a continuing stalemate in the Iran war.US commercial crude oil inventories increased by a staggering 17.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 7, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday. On the same day, the International Energy Agency projected global demand to contract by 1.6 million barrels per day this year, steeper than the 1 million b/d drop seen last month.The Strait of Hormuz is "under Iran's control and management," the recently appointed head of Iran's Basij paramilitary unit said Thursday, a day after US President Donald Trump said the US had "total control" of the waterway, Reuters reported.Gold futures slid 0.9% to $4,428.7, and silver futures fell 0.9% to $65.10.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$CSCO$SNDK
Asia Markets

Exchange-Traded Funds Higher, US Equities Mixed After Midday

Broad Market IndicatorsBroad-market exchange-traded funds IWM and IVV rose. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) added 1.2%.US equity indexes were mixed after a soft producer price inflation print boosted the odds of a monetary policy pause for a sixth consecutive time, while crude oil prices declined.EnergyIShares US Energy ETF (IYE) and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) each fell about 0.3%.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) rose 1.1%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) and iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) also advanced.The State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) dipped 0.2%, and iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) rose 2.3%.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) eased fractionally. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) rose 0.1%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), added 0.1%.CommoditiesCrude oil dipped 1.6%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) fell 1.2%. Natural gas lost 1.3%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) fell 1.7%.Gold on Comex eased 0.8%, and the State Street SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was down 1.2%. Silver lost 1.1%, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) fell 1%.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) was up 1%. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) rose 0.7%, and iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) added 0.8%.The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) was up 0.3%. VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) lost 0.6%, and the State Street SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) rose 0.3%.HealthcareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) gained 0.1%. iShares US Healthcare (IYH) and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) were little changed. IShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) fell 0.2%.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) shed 0.2%. Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) and iShares US Industrials (IYJ) were also slightly lower.CryptocurrencyIn midday activity, bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell 0.4%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) lost 0.6%, ProShares Ether ETF (EETH) was up 0.4%, and ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) dipped 0.1%.

Dow Jones^EEM^EXI^FAS^FAZ^GLD^IBB^IGM^IGV^IPK^IVV^IWMNasdaq Composite^IYE^IYH^IYJ^IYK^IYW^PMR^QQQ^RTH^SOXXS&P 500^SPY^UNG^USO^VDC^VHT^VIS^XLE^XLF^XLI^XLK^XLP^XLV^XRT^XSD$BETH$BITO$EETH