FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Update: US Equity Indexes Advance as Fed Policy-Pause Bets Rise Amid Unexpected Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls

By

(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)

US equity indexes rose after a surprise drop in nonfarm payrolls lifted the odds for a monetary policy pause in September and sent government bond yields lower.

The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.1% to 26,626.5, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% to 7,750.4 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher by 0.2% to 54,985.1.

Consumer discretionary, materials, and technology were among the top gainers in a broadly positive tape, while energy and financials led decliners.

The July employment report showed nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, compared with the 80,000 jobs increase expected in a Bloomberg-compiled poll. Private payrolls rose by 30,000 in July, the same as in June but below the 82,000 expected. Government sector jobs decreased by 53,000.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June, compared with a forecast of 4.2%, after the labor force participation rate declined to 61.4% from 61.5% and the labor force contracted.

Looking past the government decline, the increase in private payrolls was below the lowest forecast, Jefferies Chief US Economist Thomas Simons said in a note. Large declines in leisure and hospitality, retail trade and financial services offset strength in construction and healthcare and social assistance, Simons said, adding that the next move from the Federal Reserve is an interest-rate cut, and most likely in December.

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping its target rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in September surged to 56% on Friday from 45% a day ago and 33% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield down 1.9 basis points to 4.65% and the two-year lower by 4.6 basis points to 4.20%.

Gold futures jumped 2.4% to $4,399.9, and silver futures surged 3.1% to $63.53.

In geopolitical news, an Iranian official said a framework on the Strait of Hormuz has been agreed with Oman, with "a final decision to be made at higher levels," Al Jazeera, a Middle Eastern broadcaster, reported, citing Iranian state media. The deal would not automatically reopen the waterway, Tehran's deputy foreign minister said, according to CNN.

The Saudi crown prince, Turkish president and Pakistani prime minister have signed a joint defense deal in Mecca stating that "any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all," Al Jazeera reported. Pakistan is one of the few countries in the world with nuclear weapons.

The front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract jumped 1.5% to $78.41 a barrel, and global benchmark North Sea Brent advanced 1.5% to $83.74 a barrel.

In company news, Microchip Technology's (MCHP) strong fiscal Q1 results were buoyed by better cyclical trends and structural tailwinds from its data center and aerospace and defense segments, Morgan Stanley said in a Friday note. Shares of Microchip soared 14%, one of the top gainers on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Airbnb (ABNB) reported stronger Q2 bookings as product changes contributed to higher revenue in the quarter, RBC Capital Markets said in a Friday note. Shares surged 15%, one of the biggest gainers on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

Related Articles

Asia Markets

Update: US Equity Indexes Fall as Treasury Yields Jump With Crude Oil Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls, Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes fell, with markets under pressure amid higher government bond yields and crude oil prices ahead of nonfarm payrolls and a much-awaited agreement between Iran and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.9% to 53,885.10, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% to 7,709.96 at the close Friday. The Nasdaq Composite slipped less than 0.1% to 26,348.35. All but three sectors, energy, healthcare and technology, declined. Industrials, real estate and materials led decliners.SpaceX (SPCX) will build a vertically integrated semiconductor fabrication facility in Grimes County, Texas, Governor Greg Abbott said in a statement Thursday. Phase one of the Terafab project includes a capital investment of more than $16.8 billion, he said. Shares of SpaceX advanced 6.1%, the top gainer on the Nasdaq.Motorola Solutions (MSI) delivered a better-than-expected Q2, driven by continued outperformance from Silvus Technologies in defense markets and a surprise return to growth in its Land Mobile Radio business, Morgan Stanley said in a Thursday research note. Shares of Motorola soared 8.2%, the leader on the S&P 500.In economic news, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said companies planned to cut 33,429 jobs in July, down from 45,849 in June and 62,075 in July 2025, the lowest monthly total since July 2024."The pace of layoffs fell dramatically this summer," said Andy Challenger, the company's chief revenue officer. "Layoff plans continue to be announced primarily in tech, and artificial intelligence is still the story, as investments in the technology reshape organizations."Initial jobless claims rose to 199,000 in the week ended Aug. 1 from an upwardly revised 198,000 in the prior week, compared with the 205,000 forecast in a survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg. The four-week moving average fell by 4,500 to 198,750.Nonfarm payrolls are expected to jump to 88,000 for July, from 57,000 reported for the previous month, according to economists' estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Data are due Friday. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (voter) would prefer a gradual rate increase sooner, perhaps as early as the September monetary policy meeting, rather than be forced to raise rates rapidly later, according to a CNBC interview Wednesday.US Treasury yields jumped on Thursday, with the 10-year yield climbing 4.7 basis points to 4.66% and the two-year higher by 6.2 basis points to 4.24%. Apart from interest rate expectations, the yields also reflected geopolitical developments.Iran will seek to bar US and Israeli ships from the Strait of Hormuz and require compensation from hostile countries before being allowed to use it, Bloomberg reported, citing local media reports on a proposed Iran-Oman deal to manage the crucial waterway. The agreement has become key to expectations for a reopening of Hormuz and a resumption of energy flows, the news report said.Iran has made a concerted diplomatic push with Gulf states, warning them explicitly that Tehran will hit their oil, power and water plants unless they convince President Donald Trump to end US strikes on Iran, Reuters reported Thursday.Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract jumped 4.2% to $78.38 a barrel, and global benchmark North Sea Brent surged 5.3% to $83.67 a barrel. Both crude types traded close to their session highs.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$MSI$SPCX
Asia Markets

Update: US Equity Indexes Mixed as Chipmakers Help Lift Technology While Crude Oil Jumps With Treasury Yields

(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes were mixed, with gains in energy and tech partially offsetting a broadly negative market under pressure from higher government bond yields and crude oil.The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.6% to 54,016.3, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% to 7,710.2. The Nasdaq Composite was little changed at 26,308.7.Among companies with a market capitalization of more than $200 billion, four of the top five belonged to either the semiconductor or the semiconductor equipment and materials industries. Arm (ARM) was the biggest outperformer in this category, with shares up 4.9%.Tech giant Sandisk's (SNDK) shares traded 5.2% lower after dropping more than 10% earlier in the session, following fiscal Q4 results that showed an adjusted earnings and revenue beat. Raymond James adjusted its price target on Sandisk's shares to $2,000 from $1,470.Energy topped the sector charts intraday, followed by technology. Real estate, materials, and industrials led the decliners.Iran has made a concerted diplomatic push with Gulf states, warning them explicitly that Tehran will hit their oil, power and water plants unless they convince President Donald Trump to end US strikes on Iran, Reuters reported Thursday.Iran and Oman are close to finalizing a proposed framework for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran's deputy foreign minister said, according to a CNN report Thursday. However, the agreement would not automatically reopen the waterway, he warned, according to the news report. The deal would give Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, a senior Iranian source and two regional officials told Reuters on Wednesday.The front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract jumped 3.2% to $77.65 a barrel, and global benchmark North Sea Brent surged 4.% to $82.60 a barrel.US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield up 5.5 basis points to 4.67% and the two-year higher by 6.8 basis points to 4.25%.Gold futures slipped 0.1% to $4,300.40, giving up earlier gains. Silver futures retreated 1% to $61.64.In economic news, Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said companies planned to cut 33,429 jobs in July, down from 45,849 in June and 62,075 in July 2025, and the lowest monthly total since July 2024."The pace of layoffs fell dramatically this summer," said Andy Challenger, the company's chief revenue officer. "Layoff plans continue to be announced primarily in tech, and artificial intelligence is still the story, as investments in the technology reshape organizations."Initial jobless claims rose to 199,000 in the week ended Aug. 1 from an upwardly revised 198,000 in the prior week, compared with the 205,000 forecast in a survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg. The four-week moving average fell by 4,500 to 198,750.Wholesale inventories rose by 0.2% in June, revised downward from a 0.3% increase in the advance reading and following a 0.3% increase in May. Analysts in a Bloomberg-compiled poll expected no revision.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$ARM$SNDK
Asia Markets

Exchange-Traded Funds Decline as US Equities Fall After Midday

Broad Market IndicatorsBroad-market exchange-traded funds IWM and IVV edged lower. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) eased 0.4%.US equity indexes fell, while both government bond yields and crude oil rose after midday Thursday.EnergyIShares US Energy ETF (IYE) and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) each added about 1.3%.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) added 0.1%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) and iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) also increased.The State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) rose 2.7%, and iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) gained 0.9%.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) shed 0.3%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) declined 1.1%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), advanced 1.1%.CommoditiesCrude oil rose 3.5%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) gained 3.5%. Natural gas fell 1.5%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) lost 0.6%.Gold on Comex eased 0.3%, and the State Street SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) fell 0.3%. Silver was down 1.4%, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) dropped 1.3%.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) was down 0.5%. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) slipped 0.3%, and iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) fell 0.8%.The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) was down 0.6%. VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) fell 0.5%, and the State Street SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) dropped 1.5%.HealthcareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) declined 0.5%, iShares US Healthcare (IYH) fell 0.3%, and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) shed 0.4%. IShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was up 0.1%.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) fell 0.3%. Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) and iShares US Industrials (IYJ) were also lower.CryptocurrencyIn midday activity, bitcoin (BTC-USD) dipped 0.2%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) fell 0.3%, ProShares Ether ETF (EETH) was down 0.5%, and ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) fell fractionally.

Dow Jones^EEM^EXI^FAS^FAZ^GLD^IBB^IGM^IGV^IPK^IVV^IWMNasdaq Composite^IYE^IYH^IYJ^IYK^IYW^PMR^QQQ^RTH^SOXXS&P 500^SPY^UNG^USO^VDC^VHT^VIS^XLE^XLF^XLI^XLK^XLP^XLV^XRT^XSD$BETH$BITO$EETH