FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Update: Ships Maneuvre in Preparation for Strait of Hormuz Reopening, Bloomberg Analysis Shows

By

(Updates to include additional information from Reuters analysis from eleventh to thirteenth paragraph.)

Tankers in and outside the Strait of Hormuz are maneuvering in anticipation of the waterway's reopening, set for Friday once a preliminary peace agreement, that precedes longer negotiations, has been signed by the US and Iran in Switzerland, Bloomberg reported Tuesday, citing ship-tracking data.

Shipbrokers have said that the number of empty supertankers anchored in the Gulf of Oman, outside out the Strait of Hormuz, has increased to about 60 this week, up from about three dozen earlier in the month.

Their proximity to the strait will reduce the time needed to pick up new cargoes and restore Middle Eastern hydrocarbons supply to importers.

Vessels linked to Iran's oil industry have also been on the move with several changing position ahead of the deal which would also end the U.S. naval blockade of its ports.

Two oil tankers bound for Africa made a U-turn in the Indian Ocean following the announcement of the draft peace deal this week, and changing their broadcast destinations to the Middle East, according to Bloomberg, citing shipping data.

Some of the ship diversions were observed as early as a few hours after the announcement of the peace deal between the two countries, with significant pent-up demand to meet in an energy market deprived of about 20% of the world's hydrocarbons supply since March.

Some shipowners are taking a more conservative approach, opting to observe what happens in the coming days before making plans to sail out of Hormuz. Those more willing to risk an earlier crossing will earn more from importers, Bloomberg said.

Some ships stuck inside the Persian Gulf since the start of the conflict appeared to be moving closer to Hormuz, with at least two bulk carriers, an LNG tanker and a container ship seen sailing eastward, possibly to join a cluster of vessels off Dubai, where they can obtain supplies and insurance.

Qatar, which suffered a major blow to its LNG business after strikes on its Ras Laffan production facility, is sending some LNG tankers back to the Middle East as it makes plans for a resumption of exports after a previous declaration of force majeure on shipments.

At least four empty LNG vessels Qatar owns have been heading back to the Persian Gulf region after idling or heading in a different direction, Bloomberg said, citing ship-tracking data.

Meanwhile, according to a Reuters report on Wednesday, citing shipping data, at least three tankers loaded with Iranian oil have passed through the US naval blockade this week, while another empty vessel is approaching the Gulf of Oman.

Two very large crude carriers, each loaded with 2 million barrels of oil each, have crossed the Gulf of Oman and are moving eastwards. The third vessel, loaded with 1 million barrels of oil, has also moved past the blockade and is on its way to Singapore. One of the VLCCs loaded cargo in late March, while the remaining two tankers were loaded in April, the report said.

The movement of these vessels suggests Iranian oil exports and could add to global supplies despite demand from biggest buyer China remaining weak due to low domestic margins, the report added.

Related Articles

Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Falls After US-Iran Peace Deal Signals Supply Boost

Crude oil futures settled lower in after-hours trading on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session, as investors weighed the prospect of increased Iranian crude exports and a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following a peace agreement between the US and Iran.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures tumbled 5.1% to $76.62 per barrel, while Brent futures plunged by 4.4% to $79.48/bbl.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said optimism about a gradual recovery in Gulf exports has reduced the geopolitical risk premium built up during the conflict.On Tuesday, President Trump said that he's open to sending details of the peace agreement with Iran to members of Congress, according to media reports, as US lawmakers from both parties raise questions, saying they should vote on any final deal.The preliminary deal would extend the US-Iran ceasefire for 60 days and create a framework for future negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program and other issues. Though the agreement's text has not been released, Trump has said he would unveil details on Friday.A senior US official, in an emailed response to, described the deal as "performance-based," noting that Iran can access the agreement's benefits only if it abides by its commitments.The conditions include not pursuing a nuclear weapon, neutralizing its enriched uranium and not interfering with traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the official said.Though market participants have welcomed the prospect of increased crude flows via the Strait of Hormuz, RBC Capital Markets analysts said the operational challenges of reopening the Strait could take months to resolve.There are about 118 laden tankers trapped in strategic waterways, according to Kpler. However, though the vessels could leave within 10-15 days, Kpler analysts said they could deliver an early spike in transits without boosting regional production.Meanwhile, market participants are still grappling with whether the Strait has been mined, whether Iran retains de facto operational control, and how any transit tolls would be structured and collected.RBC Capital Markets analysts said the core MoU tentpoles remain unchanged from April and center on lifting the double blockade and reopening the Hormuz.On the supply front, the US will reportedly also allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel under the memorandum of understanding between the two sides, reached to end the conflict.

Oil & Energy

Iranian Oil Tankers Reposition Ahead of Potential Oil Export Resumption, Bloomberg Analysis Says

Iran-linked oil tankers have begun repositioning as Tehran moves closer to an agreement that could quickly reopen access to international oil markets, according to a Bloomberg analysis on Tuesday.Attention in the oil market has shifted to the potential return of Iranian barrels as traders assess the impact of any easing in US restrictions. About 68 million barrels of Iranian crude remain stranded under the blockade, according to a Kpler estimate cited by the analysis.Under a draft agreement nearing completion, Tehran could reportedly receive sanctions waivers that would allow oil exports to resume without delay once the deal is signed.Recent vessel-tracking data indicated that four ships resumed transmitting location signals and appeared to move through the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz. Two of the vessels are supertankers with a capacity to transport about 2 million barrels of crude each, according to the analysis.Several tankers that had been anchored near Chabahar also left the area in recent days. The destination of at least three of those vessels could not be immediately determined, the analysis added, citing TankerTrackers.com.Monitoring Iran's tanker fleet remains challenging because vessels often disable tracking systems and are frequently affected by signal interference. Ongoing regional tensions have added another layer of complexity to vessel-tracking efforts, the analysis added.Iranian media reported that efforts to remove the US naval blockade, which has been in place since mid-April, have entered the implementation stage. The Iranian Students' News Agency cited the Deputy Foreign Minister as saying the process is already underway.Shipping restrictions forced a number of Iranian tankers to remain near Chabahar after access to key export routes became limited. Reports said US naval forces also confronted some vessels attempting to move through the blockade in recent weeks.After reactivating their tracking signals, two fuel carriers crossed the Strait of Hormuz, with one continuing through the Gulf of Oman and another indicating a destination near Oman.The analysis said Washington and Tehran are expected to sign an agreement on Friday that would end both Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade of Iranian shipping.

Oil & Energy

Update: Market Chatter: US Intel Assessments Say Iran Gains Ability to Control Strait of Hormuz

(Updated with comments from a senior US official in paragraphs 5-7 and 12, and with the Market Chatter tag in the headline.)US intelligence assessments say Iran currently has the capability to open or close the Strait of Hormuz at will, giving Tehran direct leverage over one of the world's most important energy corridors, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the findings.US intelligence assessments conclude Iran now possesses a mix of military and asymmetric tools that can significantly disrupt global energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, giving Tehran leverage far beyond its conventional military weight.Iran's toolkit includes anti-ship missiles, drones, coastal launch systems and naval mines, along with hundreds of fast attack boats capable of swarming commercial vessels and harassing naval escorts.These assets allow Tehran to create enough risk in the waterway to slow or effectively choke traffic without needing full-scale naval dominance.To counter that, a senior White House official toldthat as Iran restores traffic, the US winds down the blockade in proportion.The senior US official said Iran has agreed to a performance-based MOU. "Iran performs, the relief follows, and American leverage holds the entire way," the senior US official toldin an emailed response."They cannot access any benefits of the deal unless the Strait of Hormuz remains open, along with abiding by the other points it agreed to," the official said.The CNN report said US analysts also point to Iran's proven ability to escalate indirectly through strikes on regional energy infrastructure. That expands the threat beyond a single chokepoint to oil production and export facilities across Gulf states, multiplying the potential economic impact.Iran's leverage is reinforced by its proxy network. The assessment notes that Tehran retains the option of activating Houthi forces in Yemen to threaten the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, another critical passage linking the Red Sea and Indian Ocean. If both chokepoints were disrupted simultaneously, global trade flows would face severe stress.Iran had long threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz but had not previously shown it could do so effectively until recent US-led combat operations with Israel. Multiple sources said the Trump administration initially believed Iran would avoid closure because it would damage its own economy more than the US, and expected China to restrain Tehran.As a result, Washington prioritized strikes on Iranian targets over deterring maritime disruption. Days into the conflict, that assumption proved wrong, with officials later assessing Iran acted after interpreting US regime-change rhetoric as an existential threat and escalating deliberately once its intentions were clear.The US is counting on Iran's concern for its economy while negotiations continue. "After Operation Epic Fury dismantled its military and Operation Economic Fury strangled its economy, Iran cannot afford to keep the Strait closed, which helped bring them to the table for a deal in the first place," the senior official told.Axios describes those benefits as broader sanctions relief, access to frozen funds and a potential $300 billion rebuilding investment fund.Despite current diplomatic efforts aimed at reopening maritime traffic, US intelligence officials now believe Iran retains both the capability and the incentive to introduce new disruptions if negotiations break down. Shipping analysts say that even in a "reopened" scenario, risk premiums and uncertainty could keep volumes below normal levels.The intelligence picture also highlights Iran's continued investment in its missile and drone programs and its ability to replenish systems faster than earlier US estimates anticipated.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)