FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Update: OPEC Lowers 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth Outlook for 5th Straight Month in September

By

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Thursday lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for the fifth straight month for 2026, projecting demand to grow by 400,000 barrels per day year over year.

This compares with OPEC's global oil demand growth forecast at 600,000 bbl/d year over year in August, 800,000 bbl/d in July, 1 million bbl/d in June, 1.2 mmbbl/d in May, and 1.4 mmbbl/d in April.

In 2027, global demand is projected to grow by about 2.4 mmbbl/d, year over year, up from forecasts of 2.2 mmbbl/d in August and 1.9 mmbbl/d in July, OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Market Report.

Liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation is expected to grow by 600,000 bbl/d on average in 2026 versus 2025. Growth in 2027 is also estimated at 600,000 bbl/d over 2026 levels. Both assessments are unchanged from last month's update.

This increase in output is primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, the US, and Argentina.

Natural gas liquids and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation, are expected to grow by about 100,000 bbl/d over the year in 2026, averaging 8.7 mmbbl/d. In 2027, it is expected to average 8.9 mmbbl/d.

In August, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC rose by about 300,000 bbl/d month-over-month to average 38.05 mmbbl/d, OPEC said, citing data from secondary sources.

Refining margins were mixed across the main trading hubs last month, with gains recorded in the US Gulf Coast and Rotterdam and declines in Singapore.

In UGSC, previous month's gains in refining margins were extended due to support from strong middle distillate cracks "amid firm export demand and tight supplies in the Atlantic Basin," while in Rotterdam diesel remained "the main source of strength as reduced supplies in Eastern Europe and low stocks kept the European market tight."

Meanwhile, refining margins in Singapore fell as higher refinery throughput and an increase in exports of products from Asia boosted regional supplies and pressurized product cracks, the report said.

OPEC retained its global economic growth forecasts at 3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.

Related Articles

Commodities

Baker Hughes Lifts 2026 Guidance on $13.6 Billion Chart Deal, Sees LNG Recovery by 2027

Baker Hughes Company (BKR) lifted 2026 guidance after its $13.6 billion Chart acquisition and sees LNG equipment orders recovering as 2027 approaches, Chief Executive Officer Lorenzo Simonelli said Wednesday at the Barclays Annual Energy Conference.In remarks published on the Baker Hughes website, Simonelli sees improving visibility into an LNG order recovery heading into 2027 and expects stronger execution and cost-saving gains to support meaningful margin expansion.Baker Hughes issued updated 2026 guidance, lifting its revenue forecast to $28.50 billion to $30.30 billion from $26.65 billion to $28.05 billion, reflecting the addition of Chart Industries.The company also raised its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization forecast to $4.88 billion to $5.48 billion from $4.60 billion to $5.10 billion.Baker Hughes expects Chart to generate $1.85 billion to $2.25 billion of revenue and $300 million to $400 million of EBITDA through year-end.Simonelli said Chart should generate 55% to 65% of its segment EBITDA in Q4, reflecting the mid-July closing and typical seasonal weighting.Simonelli added the integration expands Baker Hughes' data center exposure, with the industrial and energy technology segment securing $4.2 billion of related orders since 2025, including $3.2 billion in the first half of 2026, while Chart booked $600 million.Simonelli said LNG order visibility should improve toward 2027 as Baker Hughes integrates Chart, while 2026 free cash flow conversion stands at 40%-45% and Chart backlog could reach $3.6 billion in Q3.

$BKR
Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Slide to Two-Week Low on Warm Weather Outlook

US natural gas futures extended losses in after-hours trade on Wednesday, falling for the second straight session to a two-week low as forecasts for warmer weather into early fall raised concerns about heating demand heading into winter.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract each fell 3.70% to $2.808 per million British thermal units.Milder weather and strong US supplies pressured prices, although a sharp rise in European gas prices offered some support. European natural gas prices climbed to a 3.5-year high as the conflict in the Middle East escalated and European storage levels remained well below historical averages ahead of winter.Barchart, citing The Commodity Weather Group, said US forecasts shifted hotter, with above-average temperatures now expected through Sept. 18.For winter, the hotter outlook reinforces expectations that a Super El Nino weather pattern could bring warmer-than-normal temperatures this fall and winter, potentially reducing gas heating demand.Lower-48 gas demand was 80.2 Bcf/d Wednesday, up 16.4% from a year earlier, Barchart said, citing BNEF. Celsius Energy said average powerburn for the week ended Sept. 8 was 44.4 Bcf/d, up 3.4 Bcf/d from a year earlier. Powerburn on Sept. 8 was 42.0 Bcf/d, up 5.5 Bcf/d year over year.Pinebrook Energy Advisors said temperature patterns are set to normalize considerably, with population-weighted cooling degree days falling after Wednesday and trending lower into the shoulder season.Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals were 19.8 Bcf/d Wednesday, up 4.8% from the prior week, according to BNEF. Annual maintenance at Cove Point LNG in Maryland, however, could reduce feedgas demand from Appalachia by about 850 MMcf/d for up to three weeks beginning Sept. 19.US production remained strong. Trading Economics put average September output at 112.9 Bcf/d, up from 111.5 Bcf/d in August, a record, and 110.7 Bcf/d in July.Traders are now focused on Thursday's US Energy Information Administration storage report. Gas inventories stood at 3,214 Bcf as of Aug. 28, 160 Bcf, or 5.2%, above the five-year average, according to the EIA.The EIA is expected to report a 28 Bcf injection for the latest week, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. That would be below the five-year average injection of 52 Bcf and narrow the inventory surplus to 136 Bcf from 160 Bcf the previous week.

Commodities

US Power Update: Prices Mostly Higher, 5 Regions Post $100-Plus Spikes

US wholesale electricity prices were mostly higher Wednesday afternoon, with five regions seeing intraday price spikes above $100 per megawatt-hour, according to data from GridStatus.io.Electric Reliability Council of Texas' real-time locational marginal price stood at $31.13/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 51.17 gigawatts, with natural gas making up the largest share of the generation mix at 45%.California Independent System Operator's real-time LMP stood at $36.72/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 19.04 GW, with gas providing the largest share of the generation mix at 42%. Prices climbed to an intraday high of $105.97/MWh at 10 a.m. ET.Southwest Power Pool's real-time LMP came in at $32.72/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 45.37 GW, with solar representing the largest share of the generation mix at 46%.PJM Interconnection's real-time LMP was $73.17/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load reached 122.06 GW, while natural gas supplied the largest share of the generation mix at 42.7%. Prices rose to an intraday high of $271.12/MWh at 2:20 p.m. ET.Midcontinent Independent System Operator's real-time LMP was $43.18/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load totaled 86.6 GW, with natural gas contributing the largest share of the generation mix at 33.3%. Prices reached an intraday high of $155.40/MWh at 2:35 p.m. ET.New York Independent System Operator's real-time LMP came to $59.20/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load stood at 21.36 GW, while dual fuel held the largest share of the generation mix at 32.8%. Prices hit an intraday high of $283.69/MWh at 10:10 a.m. ET.ISO New England's real-time LMP reached $139.12/MWh at 4 p.m. ET, also the intraday high. Net load was 14.47 GW, with natural gas accounting for the biggest portion of the generation mix at 52.4%.Independent Electricity System Operator's real-time LMP was $37.54/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load totaled 16.87 GW at 3:55 p.m. ET, with nuclear supplying the largest share of the generation mix at 39.4%.The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center forecasts above-normal temperatures across much of the western, southern, and eastern US from Sep. 17 to Sep. 23, with below-normal to near-normal readings across parts of the northern US.Meanwhile, the US is expected to see record electricity consumption as data centers and manufacturing drive demand through 2027, according to the Energy Information Administration's September Short-Term Energy Outlook released Wednesday.Sales are expected to increase nearly 2% to 4,135 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 and another almost 2% to 4,211 billion kWh in 2027, according to STEO estimates.Commercial electricity sales should grow 3.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, representing 63% and 56% of annual sales growth, while industrial sales should rise 1.6% and 2.6%, according to the EIA's STEO.