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Update: OPEC Lowers 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth Outlook for 4th Straight Month in August

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Monday lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for the fourth straight month for 2026, projecting demand to grow by 600,000 barrels per day year over year.

This compares with OPEC's global oil demand growth forecast at 800,000 bbl/d year over year in July, 1 million bbl/d in June, 1.2 mmbbl/d in May, and 1.4 mmbbl/d in April.

In 2027, global demand is projected to grow by about 2.2 mmbbl/d, year over year, up from forecasts of 1.9 mmbbl/d in July, OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Market Report.

Liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation is expected to grow by 600,000 bbl/d on average in 2026 versus 2025. Growth in 2027 is also estimated at 600,000 bbl/d over 2026 levels. Both assessments are unchanged from last month's update.

This increase in output is primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, the US, and Argentina.

OPEC retained its outlook for natural gas liquids and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation, expecting it to grow by about 100,000 bbl/d over the year in both 2026 and 2027, averaging 8.8 mmbbl/d and 8.9 mmbbl/d, respectively.

In July, crude oil production by countries participating in the DOC rose by about 1.42 mmbbl/d month-over-month to average 37.66 mmbbl/d, OPEC said, citing data from secondary sources.

OPEC said refining margins moved upwards across the three main trading hubs, the US Gulf Coast, Rotterdam and Singapore, in July "driven by a distillate-led rally as refinery outages, a diesel export ban in Eastern Europe and geopolitical developments tightened global middle distillate balances."

Refining margins hit their highest levels since October 2022 on the US Gulf Coast, while Rotterdam reported the biggest month-over-month gains among the three hubs due to lower inventories of European diesel and gasoline. Margins improved in Singapore amid "constrained Asian refinery throughputs and a decline in crude prices," OPEC said.

OPEC forecast global economic growth at 3% in 2026, slightly lower than its previous estimate of 3.1%, but retained its 2027 outlook at 3.2%.

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