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UN Chief Urges Fossil Fuel Phaseout as WMO Sees 80-90% Chance of El Nino in 2026

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UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the world must act to "end the addiction to fossil fuels" as the World Meteorological Organization said there is an 80% chance of El Nino developing between June and August 2026, rising to about 90% through November, a development expected to intensify heat extremes, the WMO said in a statement on Tuesday.

Forecast models suggest the event is likely to be at least moderate in strength and could become strong, although uncertainty remains around peak timing and intensity, the WMO said.

"The science is clear: El Nino is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis - ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all," said Guterres in a video statement.

In late April to mid-May, sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific were already approaching El Nino thresholds. WMO said observations show this warming is being driven by unusually warm subsurface waters across the tropical Pacific, with temperatures exceeding six degrees Celsius above average and serving as a large reservoir of heat that feeds surface warming. The Southern Oscillation Index, the atmospheric component of El Nino, is also consistent with developing conditions.

"We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The most recent El Nino, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record, and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

"The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies, and climate-sensitive sectors. Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities," she added.

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