Russia's refinery throughput has slumped to its lowest level in over two decades in July as a sustained Ukrainian drone campaign against energy infrastructure forces widespread shutdowns and delays critical repairs, Kpler strategists said in a note on Wednesday.
Crude runs in Russia averaged about 3.8 million barrels per day during the first half of July, the lowest reading since 2006.
The disruptions have effectively removed an estimated 1.5 to 2 million b/d of processing capacity from the market, with total refinery downtime and attacked capacity reaching roughly 4.3 million b/d, or 58% of the country's total refining base, by mid-July.
Kpler said since August 2025, at least 25 Russian refineries have been targeted by strikes, which have hit not only crude distillation units but also secondary processing assets such as hydrocrackers, catalytic reformers, and storage infrastructure.
Damage to these assets often requires broader inspections and integrity checks before operations can resume, extending outages and delaying restarts, said Sumit Ritolia, modeling refinery and oil markets at Kpler.
The logistical impact has forced a significant shift in Russian trade flows. Russia is increasingly redirecting unprocessed crude toward export markets, with crude exports averaging 4 million b/d so far in July, as refineries struggle to process domestic output.
Kpler, in contrast, refined product exports have plummeted, falling to 1.2 million b/d in July, down from 1.6 million b/d in June and 2.3 million b/d in July 2025.
The decline has left Russia, historically one of the world's largest fuel exporters, grappling with domestic supply shortages, forcing it to ease fuel quality standards, use naphtha blending, and seek additional volumes from Belarus.
Production of gasoline has fallen by about 175,000 barrels per day between March and July, while middle-distillate production, including diesel and jet fuel, has declined by about 350,000 b/d.
Ritolia said that the tightening supply prompted a temporary suspension of ultra-low sulfur diesel exports through July.
Going forward, Kpler expects a muted recovery. Though scheduled maintenance is expected to ease, the projects' refinery runs are set to reach 4.3 million b/d in August and 4.6 million b/d in September, remaining well below historical norms.
The outlook is further complicated by a pattern of repeated strikes on facilities in regions including Moscow, Volgograd, Omsk, Syzran, and Saratov, often occurring before operators can complete repairs.
Kpler said that without a material easing of strikes or a broader ceasefire, any meaningful recovery in Russian refining operations is unlikely before Q4, keeping global product balances and refining margins structurally supported.