FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

UK Watchdog Says No Evidence Retailers Exploited Middle East Fuel Shock

By

The UK's Competition and Markets Authority said Monday that sustained high fuel prices at the pump are being driven primarily by elevated wholesale costs, but warned that weak competition in the retail fuel market continues to leave motorists paying more than necessary.

The CMA, in its latest road fuel monitoring update, said higher pump prices seen through March and into April 2026 were largely driven by rising wholesale costs linked to geopolitical disruption, rather than by any change in retailers' pricing behavior.

The watchdog said fuel retail margins, the difference between wholesale costs and pump prices, remained historically elevated, averaging about 11.3 pence per liter in April, even as some supply conditions stabilized.

Though a small number of retailers saw margin increases in March, the CMA said this appeared to reflect competitive "follow-the-leader" pricing, inventory pressures and differing wholesale purchase costs rather than deliberate exploitation of the crisis.

There is no evidence that retailers altered their pricing strategies to take advantage of the crisis, the regulator said, adding that broader market conditions, including volatility and supply constraints, may have reduced incentives for aggressive price competition.

However, the CMA reiterated concerns over "weak competitive dynamics" in the UK fuel market, first identified in its 2023 review, saying many retailers continue to set prices passively by matching local competitors rather than competing to attract customers.

The CMA said supermarkets remained the cheapest place to buy fuel on average, while motorway service stations continued to charge a significant premium.

It also highlighted the potential benefits of price comparison tools under its Fuel Finder initiative, saying drivers could save up to 9 British Pounds ($12.11) per tank by shopping around.

Retailers should be in no doubt that we are continuing to monitor prices and margins closely, Sarah Cardell, chief executive of CMA, said, adding that any reductions in wholesale costs should be "rapidly and fully passed on" to consumers.

The regulator said it would closely monitor whether improved supply conditions in April are reflected in lower retail prices in the coming weeks.

The antitrust watchdog plans to publish its next update in August, covering market developments through the end of June, and will also conduct a deeper review of retailer pricing strategies, with findings expected in the autumn as part of an assessment of the Fuel Finder scheme's impact.

Related Articles

Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Surges on Middle East Tensions, Uncertainty Over US-Iran Talks

Crude oil futures climbed over 5% in midday trading on Monday as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East stoked supply disruption fears, and conflicting US-Iran signals fueled market volatility.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rallied 5.24% to $91.88 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 4.41% to $95.19/bbl.Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Research, said the likely path out of the conflict has been, for quite some time now, a deal that is essentially not a deal, but rather an agreement to talk further and resolve contentious issues later.On Monday, Iran reportedly said it would suspend indirect communications with the US, and its allied "Resistance Front" was reported to be planning to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and choke other waterways, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.However, President Donald Trump pushed back on those reports, saying talks were still ongoing."Talks are continuing, at a rapid pace, with the Islamic Republic of Iran," Trump posted on Truth Social.The US President had earlier said he was not informed in advance of any decision by Iran to halt negotiations and, in phone interviews with US media, dismissed concerns over the suspension."I really don't care. I couldn't care less," Trump reportedly told CNBC earlier on Monday.Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the truce agreement between the US and Iran applies to "all fronts, including in Lebanon," adding that a breach in one area constitutes a violation of the broader arrangement."The ceasefire between Iran and the US is unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon," Araghchi said, adding that the US-Israeli alliance is responsible for the consequences of any violation.In a separate Truth Social post on Monday, Trump said he held a call with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and instructed Israeli troops to halt a planned attack on parts of the Lebanese capital, Beirut.He added that Hezbollah had also agreed "that all shooting will stop," adding that "Israel will not attack them [Hezbollah], and they will not attack Israel."For now, Hormuz transits remain sharply below pre-conflict levels.Scotiabank strategists said a prolonged geopolitical conflict involving Iran would tighten global oil markets for an extended period and generate significant supply disruptions.The US military has redirected 121 Iran-linked commercial vessels and disabled five others since imposing the blockade on April 13, US Centcom said on Monday, while Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard said that 15 vessels, including four oil tankers, had transited the Strait in the last 24 hours.For shipping markets, constrained routing patterns indicate that operational risk remains elevated despite the recent pause in physical incidents, Kpler strategists said on Monday.

Oil & Energy

Mild Weather Pressures Power Demand as Natural Gas Rally Gains Momentum, EBW Analytics Says

Natural gas climbed 8.9% last week to $3.29 per million British thermal units as stronger spot prices, lower production and supportive weather lifted the July contract, EBW Analytics said Monday.Milder weather across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and the Memorial Day holiday reduced electricity demand last week, cutting power-sector gas consumption by 2 billion cubic feet per day as stronger nuclear output added further pressure, EBW said.Regional power markets moved in different directions as PJM West day-ahead on-peak prices fell $21 per megawatt hour from a week earlier to $36.82/MWh, while Indiana Trading Hub prices rose $11/MWh to $43/MWh on stronger heat, according to EBW.In the West, prices in the California Independent System Operator market remained weak, ranging from $11/MWh to $16/MWh, EBW said.Rising natural gas prices are making coal-fired generation more competitive, a shift that could cut gas demand by another 0.5 Bcf/d, according to EBW.Cooler weather in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and the Southeast may also limit any rebound in gas demand this week, with power-sector consumption expected to recover by only 1.1 Bcf/d, EBW said.After holding above $3/MMBtu early in the last week, July natural gas futures settled at a nine-week high of $3.29/MMBtu on Friday, while Henry Hub spot gas traded at a 5-cent premium to the front-month contract at $3.34/MMBtu.Weather forecasts turned slightly hotter over the weekend, adding six cooling degree days, while Cameron LNG remained offline for 32 days and could restart soon, EBW added.Traders increased bearish bets to the highest level in 18 months, creating potential for additional buying if those positions unwind, while technical indicators continue to point to further near-term gains, EBW said.Looking further ahead, EBW expects natural gas inventories to rise above 4 Tcf.The firm projects a 103 Bcf storage injection for the week ended May 29 and forecasts end-of-June inventories at 2,645 Bcf to 2,670 Bcf.EBW targets July natural gas at $3.41/MMBtu within a $3.14/MMBtu to $3.55/MMBtu range, while forecasting August at $3.19/MMBtu and September at $2.86/MMBtu as prices gradually ease.July West Texas Intermediate crude fell 9.6% over the week to $87.37 per barrel after losing $9.24/bbl.While hopes for a US-Iran agreement could pressure prices toward $80/bbl, EBW said supply disruptions exceeding 1 billion barrels and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz could keep oil markets tight through the summer.

Oil & Energy

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Fall on Ample Supplies, Weakened Demand

US natural gas futures declined in midday trading on Monday as strong domestic production, softer demand, and elevated inventories weighed on sentiment.The front-month Henry Hub contract dropped by 3.59% to $3.172 per million British thermal units, while the continuous contract lost 3.50% to $3.175/MMBtu.Traders brushed aside media reports on Iran's exit from US talks and the Strait of Hormuz risks, which had lifted European gas futures prices on Monday, and focused on modest domestic demand and ample supply.Demand weakened through last week before stabilizing at the start of the new week, according to NRG Energy.US consumption dropped from above 100 billion cubic feet per day to below 95 Bcf/d by Saturday, before recovering to nearly 100 Bcf/d on Monday. The decline was driven mainly by lower power burn and a modest dip in exports to Mexico.On the supply side, dry gas production rose 0.6 Bcf/d week over week, with output up 3.4 Bcf/d compared with the same period last year, NRG Energy said. Trading Economics reported that Lower 48 production averaged 109.4 Bcf/d in May, slightly below April's 109.8 Bcf/d.Last week, the US Energy Information Administration reported that stock levels were 144 Bcf, or 6%, above the five-year average for this time of year.LNG export flows were largely steady but eased over the past few days, mainly due to ongoing scheduled maintenance.Feedgas volumes held near 17.4 Bcf/d for most of the week before slipping to 16.9 Bcf/d over the weekend, NRG Energy said. Trading Economics noted flows to major US LNG export facilities averaged 17.1 Bcf/d in May, down from a record 18.8 Bcf/d in April.Despite the latest pullback, prices remain volatile after a sharp monthly swing. US natural gas futures surged 18.9% in May following a 4.1% decline in April, Trading Economics said.