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Trump Expects Iran Deal After Midterms, Cites Rising Strait Of Hormuz Traffic, Oil Flows

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US President Donald Trump said Tuesday he expects a deal with Iran after the US midterm election, while also citing rising Strait of Hormuz traffic, with daily vessel movements reaching up to 37 ships.

Trump made the remarks in a United Nations General Assembly speech in New York, saying Iran could use a deal to rebuild and create "a far greater country than it ever was before."

"... I believe we'll make a deal right after the election because it doesn't make sense for them not to," Trump said, adding, "They're waiting to see how I do in the midterm election."

Trump highlighted the surge in Strait of Hormuz traffic, saying flows exceeded any level since the war began. "The United States Navy has recently escorted more than 1 billion barrels of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz," he said.

Trump said the US-Venezuela oil deal highlights the scale of their combined energy resources, which he said account for more than 60% of the world's oil. "Last month, we signed the largest oil deal in history, covering 65 billion barrels of oil, which will benefit both Venezuela and the United States enormously and help drive down the cost of energy all over the world," Trump said.

Most of Iran's UN delegation reportedly walked out as Trump discussed US strikes against Tehran, while President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were not seen with the delegation in the General Assembly Hall.

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Oil & Energy

Update: UK Reportedly Weighs Providing Military Support to Saudi Arabia Against Houthi Attack

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Oil & Energy

Higher Hormuz Oil Flows May Offset Supply Risks From Russia-Ukraine Strikes, Macquarie Says

Russia-Ukraine energy strikes show little sign of easing, but rising Hormuz oil flows could ease supply pressure and slow inventory draws, Macquarie energy strategist Walt Chancellor said in a Monday note.US President Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed last Monday to stop attacking energy targets, briefly sending crude prices lower. Chancellor said subsequent strikes, including attacks near Moscow, offered little evidence of a lasting agreement.Chancellor said Ukraine's attacks on energy infrastructure highlight the strategic value of such assets, pointing to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal in Novorossiysk. The terminal handles mostly Kazakh crude, while US companies, particularly Chevron (CVX), have invested heavily in Kazakhstan's upstream sector.Markets should not dismiss US statements on Middle East oil supplies as dark transits limit visibility into regional flows, Chancellor said. Hormuz shipments have risen above 8.5 million barrels per day since Aug. 30 and may have reached 10 million b/d by Sept. 18.He said additional flows could eventually halt global inventory draws, with 2 million b/d from Fujairah and another 2 million b/d to 4 million b/d potentially moving through the Red Sea.The higher oil flows also come with tighter shipping conditions, as Hormuz and Red Sea routes, longer voyages, US exports, Panama restrictions, and sanctions lift VLCC rates and vessel values while widening regional oil price differences, Chancellor said.

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Oil & Energy

Oil Update: Crude Tumbles as Trump Signals Iran Talks, Saudi Exports Recover

Crude futures tumbled in after-hours trading on Monday, as markets weighed the prospect of peace talks between the US and Iran amid signs that Saudi Arabia was recovering some crude exports despite the widening Middle East conflict.Front-month West Texas Intermediate futures tumbled 4.8% to $95.48 per barrel, while Brent futures fell 3.6% to $100.16/bbl. Dubai 1st Line Futures were down 3.1% to $90.92/bbl.ING strategists said that the pullback comes despite ongoing geopolitical risks and continued concerns over global oil supply disruptions.President Trump reportedly halted strikes against Yemen's Houthis for now, while indicating that he was open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during the UN General Assembly.On the supply front, Saudi Aramco loaded about 14 million barrels of crude on seven supertankers inside the Mideast Gulf on Sunday, according to media reports. The Gulf state has reportedly moved about 2.9 million barrels per day of crude through the Hormuz over the past six days, up from just 700,000 b/d in August.The US Central Command also said crude and LNG flows through Hormuz have reached a six-month high over the past two weeks, with key transit lanes clear of mines.Gelber & Associates strategists said Saudi exports have recovered to above 4 million b/d in September from 2.4 million b/d in August, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaging 2.9 million b/d during the past six days.