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Travel Flows Between Canada and the U.S. Expected To Stay Restrained While Gas Prices Stay Elevated, says BMO

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Canadian travellers continue to dig their heels in at the border with the United States, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The post-pandemic recovery in southbound travel by Canadians was stopped in its tracks in late 2024, and further deteriorated in 2025 as Canada-U.S. tensions flared on annexation threats and tariffs, noted the bank.

While travel to the U.S. ticked up ever so slightly in the early part of 2026, it continues to languish at less than three-quarters of 2024 levels, pointed out BMO. The state of the bilateral relationship remains fluid and the recent spike in fuel prices has added another tailwind, the bank said.

In contrast, U.S. travel to Canada has recovered from a much smaller dip in 2025. As of 2026, travel in this direction is above 2024 levels, although modestly, BMO noted.

Travel flows in both directions are expected to stay restrained as long as gasoline prices remain elevated, added the bank.

Still, even beyond a normalization in those prices, Canadian travellers may continue to be reluctant to go to the U.S. until the bilateral relationship stabilizes, according to BMO.

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