Trans Mountain operated near full capacity in June as Asia drove exports and new expansion and regulatory initiatives progressed, RBC Capital Markets said in a Friday note.
June departures from the Westridge Marine Terminal totaled 26 oil tankers, matching May's level. RBC said that slightly higher export volumes indicated utilization near the pipeline's contracted capacity.
Asia strengthened its position as the leading export market after China received 16 cargoes, up from 14 in May and representing about 60% of total shipments. California imported seven cargoes, compared with three a month earlier.
South Korea received three shipments for a second straight month, while deliveries to Washington state dropped to one from four. Alaska received two cargoes, and one shipment sailed to Singapore.
Multiple destinations received cargoes from four tankers during June. Pacific Lightering recorded no ship-to-ship transfers after handling three in May, RBC said.
RBC estimated June shipments reflected throughput of about 712,000 barrels per day, close to contracted levels. The firm said roughly 30 Aframax tanker loadings each month correspond to full use of the pipeline's 890,000 b/d nameplate capacity.
To monitor exports, RBC combines Automatic Identification System vessel signals with satellite imagery and MarineTraffic data to verify crude movements from the Westridge Marine Terminal.
Alberta advanced plans for additional export capacity by submitting a July 2 application to its Major Projects Office for a proposed 1 million-barrel-per-day pipeline to Roberts Bank.
The proposal designates Trans Mountain and Pembina Pipeline to oversee planning and construction of the west coast project, RBC said.
On July 7, Trans Mountain asked the Canada Energy Regulator to approve a negotiated settlement that would raise firm contracted capacity to 90% of nominal pipeline capacity from 80%.
The filing also seeks to establish a long-term tolling framework for the pipeline, subject to approval by the Canada Energy Regulator, RBC said.
LSEG data showed Vancouver crude exports rose 6% over the month to 14.2 million barrels in June, the highest level since November and 32% above a year earlier, RBC said.
Direct crude shipments to Asia-Pacific jumped 34% over the month to 10.6 million barrels, while APAC-bound volumes increased 12% after including ship-to-ship transfers. Exports to the US fell 8% to about 3.6 million barrels.
Asia-Pacific accounted for 75% of June exports on a direct-shipment basis, up from 59% in May, while its share reached 71% after including APAC-delivered ship-to-ship cargoes, RBC said.