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TPH Lowers Imperial Oil Q2 Outlook on Upstream Weakness, TPH Says

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TPH Energy Research lowered its Q2 outlook for Imperial Oil after weaker upstream production and softer downstream margins offset stronger performance in chemicals, according to a Friday note.

TPH lowered its upstream production forecast to 408,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from 420,000 boe/d, below the Street estimate of 434,000 boe/d.

The firm attributed the revision to wet June weather at Syncrude and Kearl, planned Q2 maintenance and weaker thermal production data through May.

The revised production outlook reduced TPH's upstream net income estimate to CA$1.39 billion ($979.69 billion) from CA$1.45 billion, compared with the Street expectation of CA$1.43 billion.

TPH kept its downstream throughput estimate unchanged at 365,000 barrels per day, close to the Street forecast of 368,000 b/d, with both reflecting about 85% refinery utilization during the quarter.

TPH said margin capture weakened because of market volatility and the Strathcona refinery turnaround, lowering its downstream net income estimate to CA$0.74 billion from CA$0.88 billion, below the Street estimate of CA$0.81 billion.

Analysts said favorable mark-to-market adjustments and updated assumptions for chemicals only partly offset weaker operating performance.

At the corporate level, TPH expects capital spending of CA$0.51 billion, broadly in line with the Street estimate of CA$0.52 billion.

TPH reduced its second-quarter 2026 cash flow per share estimate to CA$5.32 from CA$5.69, below the Street forecast of CA$5.43, following its latest pre-earnings model update.

TPH expects a straightforward quarterly update, with investor focus likely shifting to Imperial Oil's free cash flow outlook through the balance of 2026 and into 2027 and its implications for capital returns.

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