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Toronto's Housing Market Continued to Strengthen in May, Says National Bank

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According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), seasonally adjusted home sales for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) jumped by 10.0% from April to May, the third-straight monthly increase following five consecutive contractions, said National Bank of Canada.

As a result, transactions on the home resale market in Toronto are now back to their level of November 2025 but they remain weak on a historical basis, being 18.3% below their historical average, noted the bank.

Still, the uptick in sales over the past three months is certainly welcome following the difficult fall and winter. In National Bank's view, the recent rise in sales can be attributed to improved affordability over the past few quarters due to declines in property values.

In fact, since peaking in 2022, home prices in Toronto have fallen by nearly 20%, which has likely enabled some buyers to enter the market.

Despite this improvement, the Toronto housing market remains highly unaffordable, which could limit the recovery in sales, added the bank. Other factors might also limit the uptick in transactions, including the region's declining population, ongoing commercial and geopolitical uncertainty, the weakening labor market, and the recent rise in fixed mortgage rates linked to higher inflation.

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