Any further changes to Telstra Group's (ASX:TLS) core National Broadband Network (NBN) offering might represent upside or downside risk to the base case for Aussie Broadband (ASX:ABB), with any bundling of mobile and NBN services or modem unbundling, potentially limiting Telstra's share losses and thus market share gains for Aussie Broadband and Superloop (ASX:SLC), according to a Thursday note by Jarden.
If any increase in the competitive intensity in the mobile segment occurs, continued pressure on competitor balance sheets as a result of reinvestment requirements may provide Telstra with the ability to increase prices by more than forecast while benefiting from its scale and network superiority.
The Origin contract is a material contributor to Superloop's long-term earnings, and the loss of this contract would represent a material downside to the analyst's base case.
With continued marketing investment after the MOCN deal, if TPG Telecom (ASX:TPG) is able to materially accelerate net new mobile customer adoption, this would represent upside risk to the analysts' forecasts.
However, TPG is not in a position to lead the market and is likely to follow competitor leads on pricing in the mobile segment.
New technologies such as 6G mobile or edge computing may require significant capital outlays.
Jarden assigned Aussie Broadband a neutral rating with a price target of AU$5.50 per share, Superloop a buy rating and a price target of AU$3.40 per share, Telstra a neutral rating with a AU$5.05 per share price target, and TPG Telecom an overweight rating with a AU$4.30 per share price target.