Global tanker markets have entered a phase of longer voyages, tighter effective fleet supply, and heightened volatility, as geopolitical tensions and shifting production centers continue to redraw crude flows, Vortexa strategists said in a note on Tuesday.
Ioannis Papadimitriou, lead freight analyst, said that the Russia-Ukraine war marked the first major structural break, triggering sanctions-driven rerouting of crude and product flows.
Russian barrels shifted toward Asia, while Europe increased reliance on Atlantic Basin supply, lengthening voyage distances and tightening effective vessel availability.
Vortexa said Middle distillates saw particularly sharp disruption. Diesel flows previously moving from Russia to Northwest Europe were redirected to markets including West Africa and Brazil, while Europe replaced lost supply with cargoes from the Middle East, India and the US.
Papadimitriou said the result was a sustained increase in tonne-miles as short-haul trade collapsed and long-haul routes expanded.
Vortexa said a second major dislocation came from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea from early 2024, which forced widespread rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope.
Though trade flows broadly remained intact, voyage distances on key east-west clean product routes effectively doubled. Clean tanker earnings outperformed crude at times as vessel demand tightened, and some VLCCs were deployed into atypical clean trades.
The data analytics firm said that structural shifts have been reinforced by production growth and refinery changes, particularly in the Americas.
Rising exports from Guyana, Brazil and Argentina, now about 3.5 million barrels per day, have flowed to Asia and Europe, extending crude ton-miles. Overall, crude ton-miles from the Americas have doubled since 2021.
Meanwhile, changes in North American infrastructure have reshaped regional tanker demand. Canada's Trans Mountain expansion has redirected flows toward Asia, while Mexico's refinery build-out has altered short-haul product trade.
On the US West Coast, Vortexa said refinery closures have increased import dependence, boosting demand for medium-range tankers and re-exports via the Caribbean.
Vortexa said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has added another layer of uncertainty. Disruptions have redirected Atlantic Basin barrels into Asia, tightening vessel supply and increasing freight volatility.
However, the data analytics firm forecasts that a prolonged closure of the waterway would be structurally negative for tanker demand, potentially reducing Very Large Crude Carrier ton-miles by 15 to 20% and clean tanker demand by about 7%.
Going forward, Vortexa analysts said that the shifts in sanctioned crude trade, including renewed Venezuelan exports and fluctuating demand for Russian barrels, could continue to swing tanker demand between mainstream and "dark fleet" channels.