FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Taiwan LNG Demand Outlook Rises on Strong June Gas Burn, Despite Q4 Coal Recovery, Kpler Says

By

Stronger-than-expected June gas-fired power demand lifts Taiwan's 2026 LNG outlook, though rising solar and coal use should limit demand later in the year, Kpler said in a Thursday note, citing Kpler Insight data.

Taiwan's total gas consumption rose to 2.76 billion cubic meters in June, up 0.05 Bcm from a year earlier, driven by stronger gas use in power generation.

Power-sector gas use rose 0.07 Bcm over the year to 2.26 Bcm, while non-power consumption fell 0.02 Bcm to 0.51 Bcm.

As coal-fired output declined, gas generation increased 0.37 terawatt-hours over the year to 12.76 TWh in June, while coal generation fell 0.74 terawatt-hours to 9.14 terawatt-hours.

Taichung's weekly coal imports averaged about 0.19 million tons in June, down from 200,000 metric tons a year earlier, before declining further in July, Kpler said.

Power-sector gas burn exceeded expectations in June as lower coal availability pushed Taiwan to rely more heavily on gas-fired generation, the note said.

Higher near-term precipitation could curb cooling demand while also reducing solar generation, according to the latest European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts seasonal outlook.

Solar generation should strengthen in September and October, potentially displacing some thermal output, while higher coal utilization could further reduce gas-fired power demand in Q4.

Following weaker mid-year procurement, Taipower should rebuild coal availability, with recent purchases pointing to stronger coal burn through October and November. Coal generation should still remain slightly below year-ago levels.

Stronger renewable output and coal utilization should reduce gas-fired generation later in 2026, but the decline will not fully offset June's stronger burn, according to Kpler Insight.

Kpler Insight raised its 2026 Taiwan LNG demand forecast by 100,000 mt to 24.2 million mt, but cut its 2027 forecast by 200,000 mt to 25.4 million mt as renewable use strengthens and coal phases down more slowly.

Related Articles

Commodities

Market Chatter: Russia Taps India for Gasoline as Refinery Attacks Deepen Fuel Crunch

Russia has started importing gasoline from India for the first time as it faces severe shortages after repeated Ukrainian strikes on its refineries, according to a Bloomberg report on Tuesday.The first cargo arrived Aug. 5 and was supplied by Nayara Energy, the Rosneft-backed Indian refiner, and reached Russia via a roundabout route involving a ship-to-ship transfer off Egypt, Bloomberg said, citing Kpler data.For the inaugural shipment, the tanker was loaded with 42,000 metric tons of gasoline at India's Vadinar on June 18, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. This was then transferred to another tanker off Egypt's Damietta Port on July 6. It then reached Russia in early August, after almost two months in transit.Indian imports add to fuel already coming from Belarus, highlighting how tight Russia's domestic gasoline supply has become. Analysts estimate Russian refining rates fell about a third below normal in July, and Ukrainian strikes have only intensified since, prompting Moscow to restrict fuel exports to prioritize local demand.The Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, and Nayara's communications team did not immediately respond to' request for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Gain on Warm Weather Ahead of Inventory Data

US natural gas futures maintained earlier gains in after-hours trade on Wednesday as warmer weather forecasts and strong LNG feedgas demand helped offset ample supplies as the market turned its focus to Thursday's Energy Information Administration storage report.The front-month Henry Hub contract and continuous contract were both up 0.94% at $2.793 per million British thermal units.Aegis Hedging said US temperatures had increased by about 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit over the forecast period, with modest warming expected in areas east of the Rockies. Power burn held at 49.1 billion cubic feet per day, while LNG feedgas demand rose to 18.6 Bcf/d, helping absorb much of the available supply and keeping the daily balance from becoming sharply loose.Aegis said Sabine Pass accounted for much of the increase in LNG feedgas demand, with flows rising by about 700 million cubic feet per day. A planned Creole Trail pipeline outage from Aug. 25-28 is expected to reduce gas flows to Sabine Pass by roughly 150 MMcf/d, while Freeport LNG is expected to return to normal operating rates in late August.US natural gas production remained elevated at 111.5 Bcf/d, while Canadian imports stood at 5.6 Bcf/d, putting total current supply at 117.2 Bcf/d, according to Gelber & Associates.Even stronger production is forecast. EIA said Wednesday that US natural gas output is expected to reach a record 122.5 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 118.5 Bcf/d in 2025. First-half production averaged 121.3 Bcf/d, up 4% from a year earlier, driven by growth in the Permian and Haynesville regions.Permian production is forecast at 29.2 Bcf/d, up 6%, with much of the increase coming from gas produced alongside crude oil.Market attention is now squarely on Thursday's EIA weekly storage report, with analysts expecting another sizable injection that could underscore the market's ample supply cushion.Barchart expects the EIA to report a 31 Bcf increase in US natural gas inventories for the week ended Aug. 7, slightly below the five-year average injection of 33 Bcf for the comparable week. Analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal see a 30 Bcf injection, which would narrow the inventory surplus over the five-year average to 192 Bcf from 195 Bcf.The expected injection comes as inventories already stand 6.7% above the five-year seasonal average. The EIA on Tuesday projected that US natural gas storage would reach 3,985 Bcf by the end of October, the highest end-October level in a decade and 5% above the five-year average.

Commodities

Alpha Compute Signs $55 Million Term Sheet for Pennsylvania Data Center Project

Alpha Compute Corp. entered a binding term sheet deal to acquire mineral, surface and pore-space assets in northern Pennsylvania and secure power and data center capacity for a planned campus, the company said in a Tuesday statement.The agreement gives Alpha Compute Management LLC, a company subsidiary, an exclusive option to acquire the assets for a base price of $55 million. A $3 million deposit would be payable after execution of a definitive property purchase agreement and satisfaction of specified conditions and would be credited toward the purchase price at closing.Alpha Compute, listed on NASDAQ under the ticker ALP, has a market capitalization of $4.48 million, according to CNN, classifying it as a micro-cap company.British Virgin Islands-based Alpha Compute said it would serve as the offtaker under a binding but conditional intra-company commitment for an initial 200 megawatts of planned power and data center capacity, with potential expansion to 1 gigawatt.The counterparty names were not disclosed, and Alpha Compute said the project remains subject to due diligence, permitting, financing, and definitive agreements.The assets include about 1,800 unleased Marcellus oil and gas mineral acres, with a 100% net revenue interest subject to title confirmation, as well as surface and pore-space properties. Existing leasehold rights in the Utica and deeper formations are excluded.The project is greenfield, with no operating power or data center capacity currently at the site. Alpha Compute said it plans to pursue development using non-dilutive capital through special-purpose vehicles and joint ventures with energy and development partners.A third-party evaluation estimated that gas produced from the Marcellus could support 200 MW of continuous generation for 10 years at an all-in delivered cost of about 5.85 cents per kilowatt-hour, below estimated PJM commercial and industrial rates of 8 cents to 10 cents.Development plans call for 12 Marcellus wells, with average laterals of about 13,000 feet, and two new well pads. Nearby interstate gas pipelines and existing electric infrastructure could support future expansion, subject to commercial arrangements and approvals.