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Tadawul Shares Start US Fed Week Subdued; Saudi Tadawul Group Ticks Down

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Saudi equities ended Monday trading muted, with the Tadawul All Share Index closing 0.02% in the green as markets shifted their focus to the US Federal Reserve's highly anticipated interest rate decision on Wednesday.

The Fed is widely expected to hold the interest rates steady at its 3.50% to 3.75% range. Market watchers are also anticipating US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments regarding clues on the group's next rate moves.

"A lack of de-escalation over the next 48 hours should also keep pressure on the Federal Reserve to sound hawkish on Wednesday. In our preview, we explain why we expect rates to remain on hold, but also why oil has firmly reclaimed a central role in shaping monetary policy expectations. We also suspect that Chair Kevin Warsh's dislike of forward guidance raises markets' perceptions of meeting-day surprise risks. That could encourage precautionary USD buying ahead of the announcement. Markets currently price 8bp for this meeting and 41bp by year-end," ING said in a note.

In other news, oil prices declined as Iran and the US paused their back-and-forth attacks against each other. However, the Middle Eastern country noted that it is not looking to restart peace talks with the US, media reports said.

Back at home, Sport Clubs Co. (SASE:6018) entered into a lease deal for the future opening of two new Body Masters and Body Motions-branded sports clubs in Saudi Arabia. Shares of the fitness center operator closed 0.89% in the green.

Meanwhile, Saudi Tadawul Group (SASE:1111) ticked down 0.83% as it logged a decline in its net profit and revenue for the six months ended June 30. The bourse operator mainly attributed the decline to a decrease in operating revenues in the first half.

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Tadawul Shares Start Week Lower; Saudi Arabia's May Exports Climb, Imports Decline

The Tadawul All Share Index started the week 0.34% in the red as the escalating conflict in the Middle East dampened investor sentiment on Sunday.Yemen's Houthis launched attacks on Saudi Arabian oil installation structures on the Red Sea coast. The attacks struck Jizan- and Yanbu-based infrastructure that was owned by Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (SASE:2222), d/b/a Saudi Aramco, media reports said. Aramco shares closed 0.89% lower at closing.Saudi Arabia's merchandise exports in May increased 3.9% year over year, while non-oil exports dropped 26.1%. Imports, meanwhile, declined 19.5% during the period, according to a report by the General Authority for Statistics. The report also confirmed China as the kingdom's main merchandise trading partner."The ratio of non-oil exports (including re-exports) to imports decreased in May 2026, reaching 33.8% compared with 36.8% in May 2025. This decrease was driven by a 26.1% decrease in non-oil exports, alongside a 19.5% decrease in imports over the same period," the report said. "'Machinery, electrical equipment and parts' were among the most important non-oil export goods, accounting for 22.0% of the total non-oil exports, and decreasing by 31.6% compared with May 2025."On the corporate front, Modern Mills for Food Products Co. (SASE:2284) and Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group (SASE:4013) posted higher attributable net profit and revenue for the six months ended June 30. Modern Mills closed 0.49% in the red, while Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services shares were 3.44% higher.Meanwhile, Anmat Technology for Trading (SASE:9639) shares closed flat as it secured a project worth 113.8 million Saudi riyals to deliver and install specialized equipment to the Ministry of Defense.

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Update: US Equity Indexes Mixed as Media Speculation of Iran Peace Talks Sends Crude Oil, Treasury Yields Lower

(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data, and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes closed mixed as government bond yields and crude oil declined amid hopes of the resumption of Iran peace talks.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% to 51,947.25, and the S&P 500 edged up by less than 0.1% to 7,411.98. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.6% to 24,975.82. Real estate, materials, and communication staples topped the gainers. All but one sector, technology, traded higher.President Donald Trump said the US and Iran remain in talks and that he believes Tehran is "getting more serious," CNN reported late Friday. Earlier in the day, Trump met with top advisers and Cabinet officials to discuss a potential escalation if negotiations are not fruitful, a source told CNN.Pakistan is exploring a path toward a resumption of stalled talks between the US and Iran over ending the war, following a push initiated by China, Reuters reported, citing sources, on Friday. Exploratory discussions took place during a visit by Iran's Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni to Islamabad this week -- his second within the last 10 days, three Pakistani sources told the news agency. All three sources cautioned that obstacles to talks with the US remained high, per the news report.Tracking data showed two oil tankers sailing through the Gulf of Aden on Friday despite threats from the Iran-aligned Houthis, CNN reported. The Houthi attacks on two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea chokepoint on Thursday forced several other tankers to turn around and head north through the Suez Canal, potentially using a much longer route to reach Asia by sailing around Africa, Reuters reported.The front-month US West Texas Intermediate dropped 2.3% to $90.07 a barrel, and global benchmark North Sea Brent slumped 2.8% to $97.85 a barrel, retreating from a surge this week amid the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea targeting Saudi crude oil exports.The latest jump in oil prices is likely to be short-lived, a Dow Jones news report cited a Julius Baer note, referring to Brent crude surpassing the $100 mark Thursday for the first time since the US-Iran ceasefire agreement in June. Despite fresh attacks on tankers in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, the renewed fighting appears to reflect efforts by the parties to strengthen their bargaining positions ahead of another round of negotiations, the news report cited the note.Most US Treasury yields fell as a decline in crude oil helped keep a lid on inflation worries. The 10-year declined two basis points to 4.68%, retreating from its highest seen in a year on Thursday. The two-year dropped 2.3 basis points to 4.34%, after yields hit fresh 52-week highs twice this week.In precious metal markets, gold futures edged up 0.1% to $4,055.1, and silver futures advanced 0.6% to $58.41.In company news, Digital Realty Trust (DLR) reported Q2 core funds from operations and operating revenue above market expectations late Thursday, and raised its 2026 core FFO and sales guidance. Shares surged nearly 11%, among the top gainers on the S&P 500.American Express (AXP) Q2 earnings topped market estimates, while revenue missed expectations. Shares dropped 4.3%, the steepest decliner on the Dow.In economic news, the July flash reading of manufacturing conditions from S&P Global slipped to 53.8 from 53.9 in June, compared with the 54.4 print expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.New-home sales rose to a 628,000 annual rate in June from an upwardly revised 618,000 rate in May, compared with the 607,000 rate expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. Home sales were still down 5.6% from a year ago.

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US Equity Indexes Fall This Week as Mag-7 Disappoint Bulls, Treasury Yields Jump With Crude Oil Amid Houthis' Red Sea Attacks

US equity indexes fell this week as quarterly results from Magnificent-7 stalwarts failed to lift markets, while soaring crude oil prices lifted government bond yields and fueled expectations of monetary policy tightening this year.* The S&P 500 closed at 7,411.98 on Friday versus 7,463.83 a week ago. The Nasdaq Composite stood at about 24,975.82, compared with 25,538.79 a week earlier. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 51,947.25, versus 52,214.63 at the end of last week.* Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) raised its 2026 CapEx outlook by $15 billion to accelerate AI-related demand and reported a negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion in Q2. The stock slumped 7.8% this week.* Tesla (TSLA) reported an unexpected year-over-year decline in Q2 adjusted earnings, and its CapEx surged to $8.28 billion in H1 from $3.89 billion a year ago. Shares sank 18% this week.* Brent crude oil futures blew past the $100 mark this week for the first time since the now-defunct ceasefire deal was signed in June. The US has struck Iran for 13 straight nights to neutralize threats to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump warned Washington will "punish" Tehran if its allies in Yemen, the Houthi rebels, continue targeting cargo shipments in the Red Sea chokepoint.* The US 10-year Treasury yield traded at 4.68% late Friday after touching its highest in a year this week as surging crude oil sparked inflation concerns. The two-year yield also hit a 52-week high this week, heading for a close at around 4.34%.* Next week, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points rose to 38% from 13% a week ago, the CME FedWatch tool showed Friday. The likelihood of an increase of the same magnitude jumped across September, October, and December, a departure from last week when soft inflation prints lowered the probabilities of a policy tightening.

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