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Tadawul Shares End Week Lower on Geopolitical Jitters, Saudi Quarterly GDP Decline

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The Tadawul All Share Index is back in the red, closing 0.45% lower on Thursday, as the threat of another possible escalation of the US-Iran conflict dampened investor sentiment and raised oil prices.

"The main catalyst for the latest jump in oil prices was a report from Axios, suggesting that an escalation in the conflict was still being considered as an option. And overnight, they've reported that Trump is set to receive a briefing today on potential plans for military action. According to that article, US Central Command had prepared a 'short and powerful' wave of strikes that would aim to break the negotiating deadlock," Deutsche Bank Research said in a note.

In other news, and as expected, the US Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates at the 3.5% to 3.75% range at its meeting on Wednesday. At a news conference, Chair Jerome Powell disclosed that he will stay as a governor after his term as chair ends on May 15.

Back at home, Saudi Arabia's seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product declined 1.5% quarter over quarter in the first quarter of 2026, flash data from the General Authority for Statistics showed.

On the corporate front, Sumou Real Estate (SASE:4323) shares ticked up 0.94% as it secured a 36-month project to manage the superstructure development of the 149-villa Al Dhahiya Residence project in Mecca.

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US Equity Indexes Close Mixed as Crude Oil, Treasury Yields Jump; Fed Policy Faces Growing Dissent

US equity indexes closed mixed on Wednesday as crude oil futures and government bond yields rose amid concern that no end is in sight for the Iran war.The Federal Open Market Committee maintained its target rate at a policy meeting, but beneath that outcome, the level of dissent was, reportedly, the highest since 1992. Separately, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he would stay as governor "at least" until the central bank's legal challenges are resolved.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% to 48,861.81 at the close. The S&P 500 slipped less than 0.1% to 7,135.95 while the Nasdaq Composite rose less than 0.1% to 24,673.24. Utilities and materials were among decliners, while energy led the top gainers.President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, US officials told The Wall Street Journal. In recent meetings, including a Monday discussion in the Situation Room, Trump opted to continue squeezing Iran's economy and oil exports by preventing shipping to and from its ports, the WSJ reported."The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing," Trump told Axios on Wednesday. "They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them. They can't have a nuclear weapon."West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures soared 8.3% to $108.19, and Brent crude futures surged 7.8% to $119.95 amid concern that Trump's policy will prolong disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for 20% of global crude oil flows.In precious metals, gold futures declined 1.1% to $4,557.9 and silver futures slid 2.7% to $71.24, as higher crude oil prices triggered inflation concerns.Most US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year jumping seven basis points to 4.42% and the two-year catapulting 10.1 basis points to 3.95%.The FOMC maintained its target rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, as expected, but four officials dissented, its statement showed late Wednesday. The Fed, in its statement, maintained language stating the "extent and timing of additional adjustments," which implies a lingering bias toward additional rate cuts, according to a Stifel note."At the very least, the cohort of dissents sends a signal to both the market and new leadership that many agree the data do not support any additional accommodation at this point, and any push to implement such will potentially face fierce opposition," Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel, said in the note.Fed Governor Stephen Miran again sought a 25-basis-point rate cut. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan supported holding rates steady but "did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time," according to the Fed.Chair Powell said he will continue to serve as a Fed Governor after his term as chair ends next month. Powell's term as governor is due to end in January 2028, but he could leave before the expiry. "I will stay until it is appropriate for me to leave."

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Exchange-Traded Funds Lower as US Equities Fall After Midday

Broad Market IndicatorsBroad-market exchange-traded fund IWM and IVV declined. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) edged up 0.1%.US equity indexes traded lower after midday Wednesday as crude oil futures and government bond yields jumped amid concern that Iran's blockade will be extended to force Tehran into a peace deal.EnergyIShares US Energy ETF (IYE) and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) each added about 1.8%.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) was up 0.2%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) fell 0.2%, and iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) rose fractionally.The State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) climbed up 3.6%, and iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) was up 1.5%.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) eased 0.1%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) declined 0.2%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), gained 0.1%.CommoditiesCrude oil rose 6.9%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) gained 6.9%. Natural gas was down 1.7%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) fell 1.8%.Gold on Comex slipped 1%, and the State Street SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) fell 1.1%. Silver declined 1.5%, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was down 2.1%.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) eased 0.1%. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) edged lower, and iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) was 0.1% higher.The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) dipped 0.4%. VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) eased 0.2%, and the State Street SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) was down 0.7%.Health CareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) shed 0.7%, iShares US Healthcare (IYH) fell 0.6%, and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) was 0.7% lower. IShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) slipped 1.6%.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) lost 0.8%. Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) and iShares US Industrials (IYJ) were also lower.CryptocurrencyIn midday activity, bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell 0.7%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) dipped 0.8%, ProShares Ether ETF (EETH) lost 1.1%, and ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) was up 0.2%.

Dow Jones^EEM^EXI^FAS^FAZ^GLD^IBB^IGM^IGV^IPK^IVV^IWMNasdaq Composite^IYE^IYH^IYJ^IYK^IYW^PMR^QQQ^RTH^SOXXS&P 500^SPY^UNG^USO^VDC^VHT^VIS^XLE^XLF^XLI^XLK^XLP^XLV^XRT^XSD$BETH$BITO$EETH
Asia Markets

US Equity Indexes Fall Amid Surge in Crude Oil, Treasury Yields as Iran Peace Deal Proves Elusive

US equity indexes traded lower after midday on Wednesday as crude oil futures and government bond yields jumped amid concern that Iran's blockade will be extended to force Tehran into a peace deal.Index heavyweights Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) will report quarterly earnings after the bell, adding to frayed nerves as investors await the latest read on the hyperscalers' capital expenditure plans.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% to 48,853.3, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% to 7,121.9 and the Nasdaq Composite 0.4% lower at 24,572.2. All sectors except energy fell, with materials and industrials leading the decliners intraday.President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, US officials told The Wall Street Journal. In recent meetings, including a Monday discussion in the Situation Room, Trump opted to continue squeezing Iran's economy and oil exports by preventing shipping to and from its ports, the WSJ said.Trump assessed with his aides that the other options open to him -- resume bombing or walk away from the conflict -- carried more risk than maintaining the country's blockade, the officials told the WSJ."Iran can't get their act together. They don't know how to sign a non-nuclear deal. They'd better get smart soon!" Trump said in a Wednesday Truth Social post.Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures jumped 6.7% to $106.70, and Brent crude futures surged 6.8% to $118.87 amid concern that Trump's policy will prolong disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for 20% of global crude oil flows.In precious metals, gold futures dropped 0.7% to $4,575.00, and silver futures slumped 2% to $72.30, as higher crude oil prices raised inflation concerns. Most US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year up 4.6 basis points to 4.40%, the highest in about a month. The two-year jumped seven basis points to 3.91%.The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee will make its latest policy announcement at 2 pm ET, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The panel is certain to leave interest rates unchanged at the current target rate of 3.5% to 3.75%, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.If the Iran war lasts longer, Central banks that haven't adopted more explicit tightening biases, such as the Fed, and/or where inflation has been running above target, also such as the Fed, may be seen behind the curve, according to a Macquarie note. "We would then expect to see a more hawkish tone and action emerge by May."In economic news, US March housing starts jumped almost 11% to a 1.502 million annual rate from a 1.356 million pace in February, above the 1.38 million rate expected in a Bloomberg-compiled survey.Building permits plunged nearly 11% to a 1.372 million rate in March, below the 1.39 million rate expected and following the 1.538 million rate reported in February.

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