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Stronger LNG Prices Lift Venture Global Valuation, 2026 Outlook, TPH Says

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Driven by lower Henry Hub prices and stronger international LNG pricing, TPH Energy Research has raised Venture Global's (VG) Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to $2.86 billion from $2.75 billion.

This is above the Street estimate of $2.47 billion.

For full-year 2026, the firm lifted its adjusted EBITDA estimate to $8.79 billion from $8.60 billion, compared with a Street forecast of $8.30 billion and a consensus range of $7.48 billion to $8.77 billion.

TPH lowered its 2027 adjusted EBITDA forecast by about $200 million to $6.46 billion from its prior outlook, while the Street expects $6.60 billion.

The revision reflects about 2.5 million metric tons per annum of new five-year contracts signed this year, which TPH modeled at a rate of $4.

After assigning those contracts to Plaquemines Phase I, TPH increased its committed 2027 volumes to 89% from 75%, reducing open capacity and lowering its earnings outlook for the facility despite stronger pricing.

TPH expects CP2 to begin operations in the third quarter of 2027 and said an earlier startup would improve its 2027 forecast.

TPH expects global LNG markets to move into oversupply by mid-2028, with Venture Global projected to have significant uncontracted capacity, with its facilities expected to be 54% contracted in 2028 and 50% contracted in 2029.

The firm noted that a $1 change in margin could affect 2029 EBITDA by $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion, while a decline in international LNG prices toward the $6 to $7 range would materially reduce its earnings outlook.

TPH raised its price target on Venture Global from $8 to $17 after updating its model for current commodity prices and recent contracting activity, while maintaining a Hold rating on the stock.

Price: $13.04, Change: $+0.23, Percent Change: +1.84%

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