Southeast Asia is set to miss its gas-fired power expansion goals by a wide margin as project delays and supply chain constraints reshape the region's energy transition, Wood Mackenzie strategists said in a Tuesday note.
Governments across six major Southeast Asian markets are targeting about 53 gigawatts of new gas-fired capacity by 2030, according to Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie expects only 14.9 GW will reach commercial operation this decade as volatile fuel costs, turbine shortages, financing constraints and infrastructure bottlenecks delay project execution.
"The challenge today is not planning power projects but executing them. New gas-fired capacity depends on several critical enablers, including LNG infrastructure, project financing, and turbine availability," said Alvin Tan, analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Developers have secured gas turbines for only 11 GW of the planned pipeline. Projects still waiting for equipment will likely face delivery lead times of at least five years, extending construction schedules.
The firm expects Southeast Asia's electricity demand to grow 2.4 times by 2050, outpacing China, Australia and South Korea as industrial expansion, semiconductor investment, electronics manufacturing and hyperscale data centers drive consumption.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts power-sector gas demand will more than double between 2026 and 2050. Gas will account for more than one-quarter of the region's electricity generation by mid-century, according to the note.
The report also expects Southeast Asia to become a net gas importer by 2033, with liquefied natural gas supplying more than 80% of regional gas demand by 2050, raising new energy security concerns.
As gas project delays mount and supply chains tighten, policymakers are being forced to rethink not only the role of gas in the near term, but also the long-term pathways to achieving their energy transition goals," said Wei Han Tan, analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Vietnam faces the region's largest delivery gap. While the government targets 29.4 GW of new gas-fired capacity by 2030, Wood Mackenzie expects only 3.7 GW to come online because of fuel pricing issues, domestic gas uncertainty and project delays.
Peninsular Malaysia is extending nearly 5 GW of existing gas-fired generation through 2030 while Wood Mackenzie forecasts 5.9 GW of new capacity against a requirement of about 9.4 GW. The government is also exploring renewable energy hubs at retiring coal plants.
Indonesia has secured turbines for only 200 megawatts of its planned 8.4 GW gas pipeline, the lowest share among the markets studied. The country is accelerating solar deployment while advancing selected gas projects, according to Wood Mackenzie.
Singapore has secured turbine supply for all major projects expected before 2030. However, Wood Mackenzie said the country's planned procurement of 1.8 GW of hydrogen-ready generation capacity will test tightening global equipment supply.
The Philippines is on track to add only 0.4 GW of gas-fired capacity against its target of about 2 GW by 2030. The firm also cited fragmented long-term resource planning and recent grid reliability concerns as key challenges.
Thailand targets 1.4 GW of new gas-fired capacity by 2030, but Wood Mackenzie expects only 0.5 GW to be delivered as policymakers balance surplus generation capacity with long-term energy transition goals.