Societe Generale in its early Tuesday economic news summary pointed out:
Brent -0.5% to US$82.8/barrel, VIX down to 16.2, United States Treasury and German Bund yields consolidate, Federal Reserve pricing for December 2026 steady at 20bps, European Central Bank pricing stabilizes at 31.5bps. Qatar, UAE, Egypt to attend G7 meeting on Tuesday, the U.S. may release details of the Iran agreement before Friday.
Bank of Japan hikes by 25bps to 1.00%, the highest since 1995, repeats will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation if the outlook presented in October is realized. USD/JPY flat at 160.29. 10-year Japanese government bond yield +6bps at 2.645%.
Reserve Bank of Australia leaves CRT on hold at 4.35%, didn't consider raising rates, still upside risks to inflation. Will do what it considers necessary to achieve price stability, including increasing CRT further if required. AUD/USD -0.45% to 0.7050. Three-year Australian government bond flat at 4.43%.
China activity data disappoints again in May: retail sales -0.6% year over year, first decline since December 2022. Industrial production accelerated to 4.5% year over year. FAI year-to-date (YTD) decline deteriorated to -4.1% YTD. Property investment slump worsened to -16.2%.
Day ahead: ECB speakers Esciva, Lane and Sleijpen. Germany ZEW survey. U.S. import and export prices. United Kingdom benchmark auction. Chile's central bank forecast to stay on hold at 4.50%. Poland's core consumer price index.
Nikkei +0.1%, EUR 10-year IRS unchanged at 3.01%, Gold -0.6% at US$4,315/oz.