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SocGen's Overnight Economic News Summary

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Societe Generale in its early Friday economic news summary pointed out:

Brent steady around US$95/barrel into nonfarm payrolls (NFP), United States/Iran peace talks stall after Hezbollah rejected U.S.-brokered truce in Lebanon. President Trump is open to meeting with Iran's new supreme leader if there's an agreement to end the war. The House approves more aid to Ukraine (US$8 billion for weapons) and imposes sanctions on Russia. 10-year U.S. Treasury support 4.40%, resistance 4.53%. OIS December 2026 FOMC +16bps.

India: Reserve Bank of India leaves key rate unchanged at 5.25%, vote unanimous, stance neutral. FY27 gross domestic product forecast lowered to 6.6% from 6.9%, inflation raised to 5.1% versus 4.6%. USD/INR -0.3% at 95.50, 10-year IGB yield -4bps at 6.95%.

Day ahead: U.S. NFP, SocGen forecasts 125,000 gains, consensus is for 85,000, while the range is between 45,000 and 125,000, whisper 99,000. Eurozone Q1 GDP third reading. Bank of England speakers Dhingra and Bailey. United Kingdom DMP three-month output price and one-year consumer price index expectations. Canada's Labour Force Survey (LFS). Turkey's CPI.

Nikkei -1.4%, EUR 10-year IRS unch at 3.06%, Brent crude +0.5% at US$95.5/barrel, Gold -0.8% at US$4,440/oz.

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According to National Bank of Canada's preliminary estimate based on Centris data, Montreal's seasonally adjusted home sales fell by 1.8% in May from April, following a 4.3% decline the previous month.This marks the fifth decline in seven months, noted the bank.This weakness comes amid trade and geopolitical uncertainties, a recent rise in fixed mortgage rates due to soaring inflation and a significant deterioration in the labor market in the Montreal region since the start of the year, stated National Bank.In fact, the unemployment rate in the Montreal Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) jumped from 6.3% in January to 7.7% in April, very close to the 7.9% observed in Toronto. If this weakness in the labor market is confirmed by data in the coming months, there is a risk of further deterioration, added the bank.For now, transactions in the Montreal residential market are at their historical average in May. This situation contrasts with the markets in Vancouver and Toronto, where home sales in May are 32.7% and 18.3% below their long-term averages, respectively.National Bank believes the relative resilience of the Montreal market is partly due to better affordability conditions in the Quebec metropolis.

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