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SocGen's Overnight Economic News Summary

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Societe Generale in its early Thursday economic news summary pointed out:

Brent steady after 5.6% drop on Wednesday, US$104.95/barrel. Bonds quiet after relief on Wednesday, 10-year United States Treasury steady at 4.60%. Iran reviewing updated U.S. proposal on ending the war, prepared to wait a few days.

FOMC minutes hawkish: A majority of participants highlighted that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2%. Many participants flagged the need to drop the easing bias.

Germany manufacturing PMI dips to 49.9 in May from 51.4 in April, new orders 48.9. Services PMI up to 47.8, new orders 48.2. France manufacturing declines to 48.9 from 52.8, new orders 45.8. Services tumble to 42.9. New orders down most since November 2020, input prices up. United Kingdom manufacturing unchanged at 53.7, new orders 51.9. Services drop to 47.9. Input prices ease, pieces charged up.

Australia: April employment -18,600, full-time -10,700, unemployment rate +0.2pp to 4.5%, highest since 2021. Reserve Bank of Australia forecast is 4.3% end-2026. Three-year ACGB -10bps to 4.58%, AUD/USD -0.6% at 0.7110, 50dma support at 0.7093, AUD/JPY support 112.59.

Day ahead: U.S. weekly jobless claims, PMI. Federal Reserve speaker Barkin. European Central Bank's Villeroy and Elderson. Bank of England's Taylor, Gilt auction.

Nikkei +3.1%, EUR 10-year IRS unchanged at 3.126%, Brent crude +1% at US$106.1/barrel, Gold -0.3% at US$4,519/oz.

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