SocGen's Overnight Economic News Summary

Societe Generale in its early Monday economic news summary pointed out:

-- Risk off, Brent rises 7% to US$102/barrel, natural gas adds 8.4% to EUR47.3/MWh, Euro Stoxx futures down 1.4%, DXY bid above 99.0. The United States Navy will start blocking all vessel traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports at 10 a.m. CET on Monday after peace negotiations end without agreement. WSJ: U.S. open to resuming limited military strikes. Iran cites excessive U.S. demands on the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear program.

ECB call change: SocGen forecasts first European Central Bank rate increase in June, second hike in September on higher core inflation.

'Orbanexit': Peter Magyar's Tisza wins supermajority in Hungary's parliament, defeating Prime Minister Viktor Orban. EUR/HUF gaps down, trades through 2023 low to 367.12. Result will unblock 90 billion euros emergency financial and military support package for Ukraine for 2026 and 2027, loan is financed by common European Union debt, adds bear steepening influence for eurozone government bonds.

CFTC foreign exchange positioning: Euro (EUR) flips to net short 0.97% of OI (first since March 2025), yen (JPY) shorts raised to 26.8%, sterling (GBP) shorts upped to 23.1%, Australian dollar (AUD) longs trimmed to 26.8%, Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) longs reduced to 8.7%, Mexico's peso (MXN) longs steady at 31.4%, Nymex longs dip to 9.9%.

Week ahead: Kevin Warsh Federal Reserve chair confirmation hearing delayed. U.S. producer price, industrial production (IP), Philly Fed business outlook, Fed Beige Book. Eurozone final consumer price index, IP. United Kingdom February gross domestic product. China Q1 GDP. Romania CPI. International Monetary Fund WEO update on Tuesday.

Nikkei -0.7%, EUR 10-year IRS +2.5bps at 3.11%, Brent crude up 7% at US$102/barrel, Gold -0.6% at $4,720/oz.

National Bank On What It Will Be Watching For Next Week

National Bank notes we'll get an update on the state of the residential sector with the release of March Housing Starts next Friday. The bank says judging by the data on building permits, the latter could have increased to 260K in annualized terms, led by the multi-unit segment.National Bank notes we will on Thursday also get Existing Home Sales numbers. The bank says they may have edged up 0.7% nationally in the third month of the year, boosted by stronger sales in Toronto and Vancouver.In other news, National Bank says Manufacturing Sales data on Wednesday may have expanded 3.8% m/m in February, on increases in the food and transportation equipment subsectors.The bank notes other February data will also be available, including figures Wednesday on Wholesale Trade Sales and Building Permits on Monday. National Bank will also be keeping an eye out for the release of the CFIB Business Barometer for April.Price: $195.34, Change: $+1.83, Percent Change: +0.95%

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CIBC On the Week Ahead In Economics

In Canada, CIBC says, the release Wednesday of both Manufacturing and Wholesale data for February should confirm the sharp rebounds already signaled by the advance estimates. For Manufacturing Shipments, CIBC is forecasting a 3.5% monthly gain, compared to a consensus 3.8%. For Wholesale Sales ex-petroleum CIBC sees a 2.5% rise.However, CIBC adds, housing starts figures for March on Friday are likely to show building activity stilltracking a lower level than the 2025 average. CIBC estimates 204k versus a consensus 250k.Also on the CIBC calendar for next week are the release of Building Permits for February on Monday and then the auction of $3 billion in 30-YR CANADAS on Wednesday and auction of $5.5 billion in 2-YR CANADAS on Thursday.Thursday will see the release of March Existing Home Sales and Friday will bring February Int'l Security Transactions.Price: $143.21, Change: $+1.62, Percent Change: +1.14%

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SocGen's Overnight Economic News Summary

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