Shipowners are closely monitoring efforts to secure a peace deal between the US and Iran, weighing whether the Strait of Hormuz could fully reopen to commercial traffic after months of disruption caused by the Middle East conflict, according to a Bloomberg analysis on Friday.
Though some operators remain cautious, citing security concerns and past failed agreements, others expect a scramble for vessels if confidence returns to the strategic waterway.
Signal Maritime forecasts that about 127 oil tankers are currently in the Persian Gulf, though the maritime analytics firm acknowledges the difficulty of verifying the figure. Meanwhile, dozens of vessels are idling near the mouth of the Hormuz, positioning themselves to capitalize on a potential surge in demand.
The global energy market has adjusted since the onset of the conflict, which effectively closed the Strait, which handles about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
Though the disruption initially sparked fears of a massive price shock, the market has since adapted through emergency measures, pipeline rerouting, and a growing volume of "dark" trade, tankers moving through the waterway with signals disabled.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright reportedly said Friday that approximately 7 million barrels per day are currently moving through the Hormuz. JPMorgan Chase places the figure at just over 5 million b/d, while major commodity traders track it closer to 4 million b/d. Pre-war traffic levels typically reached 20 million b/d.
Satellite imagery from the European Union's Copernicus browser indicates a rise in ship-to-ship transfers off the coasts of Oman and the UAE. Industry analysts say these transfers, which account for about 16 million barrels of oil, help explain why Brent crude futures have retreated more than 30% from their wartime highs.
The mechanics of any potential reopening of the Hormuz remain a significant point of contention.
Though US officials have advocated for free passage, reports suggest that any memorandum of understanding may contain ambiguous language regarding the extent of Iranian control.
A US-Iran peace deal could lead to the normalization of traffic in the Strait, with industry experts anticipating a massive influx of crude as producers scramble to clear storage tanks filled during the conflict.
Some regional producers, including Saudi Arabia's national tanker operator, have begun positioning empty vessels in the Indian Ocean in anticipation of a peace deal, ready to move barrels to global markets.