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Shell Price Target Edges Down as Berenberg Notes Buyback Reduction

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Berenberg made "minor" revisions to its earnings estimates for Shell (SHEL.L, SHELL.AS) and trimmed its price target for the energy giant, noting a decline in share buybacks to $3 billion in the first quarter from $3.5 billion in the previous three months.

The price target was cut to 40 pounds sterling from 41 pounds for the group's London-listed shares and to 46 euros from 47 euros for the Amsterdam-listed ones. Adjusted EPS estimates were reduced by 0.5% for 2026 and lifted by 2.8% and 4% for 2027 and 2028, respectively, on higher expectations for chemicals and products earnings.

"The decision to trim the buyback may disappoint investors, with the company choosing to strengthen the balance sheet," analysts said Tuesday. "Given the extremely strong cash flow in Q1, this could create room for further resource acquisitions in the coming quarters. The stock has materially lagged peers over the past 12 months, due mainly, in our view, to lower growth opportunities. We believe that there is room for a catch-up if the company can make strong progress on capital reallocation plans this year. We remain at Buy."

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