Sector Update: Consumer

Update: WTI Oil Plunges to a Month Low on Expectations the War on Iran is Nearing an End

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil plunged 5.6% on Wednesday on expectations the United States and Iran are nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the largest-ever energy supply shock.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$5.21 to settle at US$88.68 per barrel, the lowest since April 20, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$5.30 to US$94.28.The drop comes as United States and Iran continue negotiations to end their war and reopen the crucial waterway that is the chokepoint for the 20% of daily oil supply from Persian Gulf nations that has been closed since the Feb. 28 start to the war.Talks between the two countries are continuing in Qatar and U.S. President Trump has repeatedly said a deal is near. Reuters reported Iranian State TV is saying it has seen a draft of "an initial, unofficial framework" for a peace agreement that sees the withdrawal of U.S. forces in the region while Iran and Oman will jointly managing shipping through the Strait.Though oil prices have retreated from April highs above US$110 per barrel, there is little expectations prices will quickly return to pre-war levels as importers look to rebuild inventories."Even if a deal is reached, market normalization is likely to take months, with ongoing demand for replacement barrels and depleted inventories potentially leading to a higher price floor than the one seen before the war," Saxo Bank noted.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$5.21; Settles at US$88.68 per Barrel

Update: Gold Trading at a Two-Month Low Even as Falling Oil Prices Ease Inflation Concerns

(Updates prices.)Gold fell to a two-month low early on Wednesday, even as the dollar dipped as oil prices weakened ahead of an expected deal to end the war on Iran, easing inflation worries.Gold for July delivery was last seen down US$52.6 to US$4,482.40 per ounce, the lowest since March 26.The precious metal has remained well below its Jan. 28 record high as investors turned to the dollar as oil prices surged after the United States and Israel attacked Iran, which responded by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for a fifth of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations.However oil prices have retreated from four-year highs touched last month on expectations Iran and the United States will soon end hostilities amid talks in Qatar and reopen the Strait, easing the inflation worries that have supported the dollar and pushed up treasury yields, both bearish for gold."Gold fell alongside US bond yields on Tuesday as the prospect of a Middle East peace deal weighed on oil prices, thereby easing inflation concerns. In addition, a powerful global equity rally, led by chipmakers, has reduced near-term demand for defensive assets such as gold," Saxo Bank noted.The dollar edged higher, with the ICE dollar index last seen up 0.08 points to 98.24. Treasury yields edged down, with the U.S. two-year note last seen paying 4.045%, down 0.1 basis points, while the yield on the 10-year note was down 0.4 points to 4.489%.