Saudi Arabia's main alternative route for exporting oil around the Strait of Hormuz is facing a new challenge. The same Red Sea corridor used to bypass one maritime chokepoint may now be exposed to another, Kpler analyst Emmanuel Belostrino said in a Tuesday note.
Most Saudi crude avoids the Strait of Hormuz by traveling through the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. From there, however, much of the oil bound for Asia must sail south through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where attacks and threats from Yemen's Houthi movement have disrupted commercial shipping.
A potential solution is to reverse the flow and send more Saudi oil north through Egypt. The route would use the 2.5 million barrels-per-day Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline, or SUMED, which connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, along with northbound Suez Canal shipping. The arrangement would allow Saudi crude to reach global markets without passing through Bab el-Mandeb.
But the solution is not as simple as turning Saudi tankers north. Saudi Arabia normally exports crude on very large crude carriers, which can carry about 2 million barrels of oil. Those ships are too large to pass through the Suez Canal fully loaded. Instead, Saudi Arabia would need to rely on Egypt's SUMED pipeline, smaller Suezmax tankers, or partial unloading operations that reduce a ship's draft before canal transit.
Analysis of shipping and trade data suggests the infrastructure exists, but scaling it to replace threatened Red Sea exports would be a major logistical challenge.
Saudi Arabia's western ports currently handle about 4.2 million barrels per day of crude exports, with roughly 3.3 million barrels per day typically heading to Asia through Bab el-Mandeb. Refined product exports from Red Sea refineries add another roughly 400,000 to 500,000 barrels per day that could also be affected.
The crude system appears technically feasible. SUMED can carry part of the displaced oil, while additional volumes could move on tankers through the Suez Canal. Saudi Arabia has already used the route, but not at the scale required during a prolonged disruption.
The bigger challenge may be shipping capacity. Every tanker carrying oil north must eventually be matched by vessels returning south to reload. A large increase in southbound tanker movements would be required, placing pressure on a lane already heavily used by Russian oil exports moving toward Asia.
Even if the logistics work, the global oil market would need time to adjust. Much of the disrupted Saudi supply could potentially be absorbed through trade reshuffling, with European refiners taking more Saudi barrels while other producers redirect supplies to Asia. However, long-term contracts, refinery requirements and higher freight costs would limit how quickly the market could adapt.
The likely outcome is not a complete replacement of the Red Sea route, but a partial safety valve. Saudi Arabia has a physical escape route; the question is whether shipping networks and global buyers can support it at full scale.