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S&P Forecasts Weaker Credit Quality for 15% of Asia-Pacific Corporates Under Prolonged Middle East War

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Protracted energy supply disruptions due to the Middle East conflict would weaken the credit profile of 15% of rated Asia-Pacific corporates, S&P Global Ratings said in a Thursday release.

The figure under this downside scenario is greater than the 9% forecast under S&P's base case of a nearer end to the conflict.

Sectors most vulnerable to the downside case include chemicals, downstream oil and gas, airlines, automotive, engineering and construction, and building materials, S&P said.

The rating agency expects countries with depleting energy reserves to be impacted first, with subsidy efforts postponing some impact but ultimately pressuring countries' financial positions.

The impact of the oil shock will vary across firms in different countries and even within the same sector, S&P said.

However, supply chain diversification, inventory management, and timely cost passthrough should aid sectors in anchoring credit quality, S&P said.

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