Russia's seaborne oil exports fell to 5.74 million barrels per day in May, down 160,000 b/d from a year earlier, though crude shipments remained relatively resilient, Vortexa strategists said in a Friday note.
Since October 2025, Russian seaborne crude exports have averaged 305,000 b/d above year-ago levels, with volumes largely holding above three-year seasonal norms since March despite damage to export infrastructure.
Attacks on terminals, including Primorsk and Ust-Luga, in March failed to significantly disrupt crude flows, as stronger exports from the Arctic and Far East offset weaker performance in other regions, according to Vortexa.
The Baltic region continued to export more crude than a year ago, although growth lagged seasonal trends, while Black Sea shipments remained below prior-year levels.
Longer-term capacity growth could further support exports. Kozmino handled 47.2 million metric tons, or about 1 million b/d, of ESPO Blend exports in 2025 and still remains below its 50 million mt annual capacity, the note added, citing Argus data.
In the Arctic, Vostok Oil's first phase could start by the end of 2026 and eventually add up to 600,000 b/d of export capacity. The project may also reduce exposure to infrastructure disruptions caused by attacks, the note said.
Combined with ongoing refinery outages, steady volumes from the Arctic and Far East suggest Russian seaborne crude exports are likely to remain supported over the coming month.
Refinery disruptions continued to pressure refined fuel exports. Russian seaborne diesel and gasoil shipments dropped to a seasonal low of 740,000 b/d in May, down 26% from a year earlier amid at least 14 refinery strike incidents.
The Baltic accounted for 56% of diesel and gasoil exports in May as Russia's refined-product trade continued shifting away from the Black Sea following the invasion of Ukraine, according to Vortexa.
Strikes at the Tuapse refinery and export terminal in April and May sharply reduced activity, with almost no diesel or gasoil cargoes departing the facility in May, resulting in a deficit of at least 110,000 b/d from year-earlier levels.
Ukraine continued targeting Russian energy infrastructure in June with at least five reported attacks.
Six refineries struck in May entered full outages, affecting about 1.5 million b/d of crude distillation capacity, or nearly 21% of Russia's total refining capacity, the note added, citing Argus.
Vortexa expects Russian refined-product exports to remain subdued, while crude exports from west-facing ports, particularly in the Baltic, should stay available.
With Arctic and Far East shipments remaining firm and uncertainty lingering over a potential extension of the US sanctions waiver beyond June 17, exports of Russia's predominantly medium-sour crude are likely to remain robust.