Ukraine's escalating drone campaign against Russian refineries is curbing fuel production and exports, adding to pressure on an already strained global diesel market, International Energy Agency strategists said in a note on Friday.
The IEA cut its forecast for Russian refinery throughput to 3.8 million barrels per day for the rest of 2026 and for 2027, as repeated attacks damage processing units and lengthen repair times.
Russia's refining system has faced frequent strikes this year, with attacks extending to secondary processing units such as fluid catalytic crackers, hydrocrackers and hydrotreaters.
The IEA said that damage to those units can take longer to repair than disruptions to crude distillation units, limiting refiners' ability to restore production quickly.
The consultancy said that attacks have also pushed Russia to impose broad restrictions on fuel exports. Russia has banned gasoline exports and, for the first time, restricted shipments of jet fuel and diesel as it seeks to protect domestic supplies.
The pressure has extended beyond Russia. IEA data shows Russian and Middle Eastern diesel exports fell to just 520,000 b/d in August, down 75% from a year ago. Higher shipments from the US and a recovery in Asian exports have only partially offset this.
Global seaborne gasoil and diesel exports averaged 4.7 million b/d in the first eight months of 2026, down 10% from a year earlier, with the decline accelerating during Q2 and Q3, according to the IEA.
The disruption comes as Middle Eastern product exports remain constrained by the conflict and shipping disruptions in the region. Gulf countries exported an average of 390,000 b/d of diesel and gasoil in August, slightly more than a quarter of pre-conflict levels.
Combined Gulf and Russian diesel exports were 1.6 million barrels a day below February levels, when the two regions accounted for almost 45% of global seaborne trade.
The IEA said that the squeeze is showing up in refining margins. Diesel cracks, a measure of the profitability of turning crude into diesel, climbed above $100 per barrel in September in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe.
The consultancy said that leaves refiners elsewhere with limited room to compensate. Global refinery throughputs reached a summer peak of 81.4 million b/d in August but were still 4.2 million b/d below a year ago. Global runs are forecast to fall by 2.6 million b/d in 2026.
The loss of Russian products is significant because Moscow had historically been a major supplier to international diesel markets. The IEA said that repeated attacks have instead forced Russian refiners to prioritize domestic demand, while the government has restricted exports to prevent shortages.
Russian motorists have already faced supply disruptions, while gasoline and diesel prices have risen sharply this year. The government has also relaxed some fuel-quality requirements and turned to imports to help fill the domestic shortfall.
The IEA said the current frequency and intensity of attacks suggest Russian crude processing rates will struggle to recover meaningfully. Repeated damage-and-repair cycles could further undermine refinery reliability, while Western sanctions may restrict access to specialized equipment needed for repairs.
For global fuel markets, the timing is particularly challenging. The IEA said diesel demand is strengthening heading into the northern-hemisphere winter, while refinery maintenance limits spare capacity.
OECD refiners were already operating at high utilization rates, leaving little scope to substantially increase middle-distillate production.
The consultancy said that diesel market tightness could intensify further in Q4 as seasonal demand increases and refiners face limited ability to respond to additional disruptions.