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Russia's Oil Output Forecast Cut as Attacks, Sanctions Disrupt Crude Flows, Rystad Says

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Russia's crude oil production is expected to average 8.95 million barrels per day in 2026 and fall to about 8.6 million barrels per day in 2027 as tighter sanctions and Ukrainian attacks on refineries, ports and tankers disrupt the country's oil sector, Rystad Energy said in a note on Friday.

Rystad cut its 2026 forecast by 90,000 b/d, citing renewed disruptions at western Russian export terminals and growing risks to seaborne shipments, which have become less reliable and more expensive.

Russia has limited capacity to absorb further disruptions, with onshore crude inventories already at levels where sustained production cuts are increasingly difficult to avoid, Rystad said. Even if operational constraints ease, a significant recovery is unlikely.

Refinery runs in June and July were among the lowest in two decades. Rystad expects refinery throughput to average about 4 million b/d from July through December, nearly 30% below the 2016-2023 seasonal average of roughly 5.7 million b/d.

"Every barrel not processed by a refinery must either be exported, placed into storage or removed from production," Daria Melnik, Rystad Energy vice president of oil and gas research, said. "While Russia was able to absorb that imbalance in June, July demonstrated that its export system cannot consistently handle the additional volumes."

Rystad estimates Russia's spare production capacity at about 620,000 b/d in 2026, rising to 700,000 b/d in 2027.

Much of that capacity is tied to aging, high-water-cut wells that have been shut in under current production cuts. Prolonged outages could permanently reduce output as repair and water-handling costs rise.

The outlook is also clouded by an expected global oil surplus in 2027. Lower benchmark prices, deeper discounts on Russian crude and higher logistics costs could further pressure producer revenues, while increased access to non-sanctioned supplies may reduce buyers' willingness to accept the risks associated with Russian barrels.

Rystad said limited new field developments and declines from mature assets will further constrain Russia's production after 2027.

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