Russia has about 1 million barrels per day of refining capacity offline after drone attacks disrupted over 20% of the country's 5.4 million barrels per day refining system, TPH Energy strategists said in a Monday note.
Recent Ukrainian drone strikes hit the 247,000 b/d Gazprom Neft refinery in Moscow and the 181,000 b/d Antipinsky refinery in western Siberia. Some of the targeted facilities sit over 2,000 kilometers from Ukraine, according to TPH Energy.
Russian refinery runs averaged 4.3 million b/d in June 2026, down from 5.2 million b/d a year earlier, highlighting the impact of the outages, TPH Energy added, citing Bloomberg data.
The supply disruptions have created fuel shortages across Russia. Authorities have restricted retail fuel purchases, while some filling stations have reported long lines and gasoline shortages.
Russia stopped exporting gasoline in April but continues to supply about 700,000 b/d of diesel to global markets. TPH Energy said lower Russian refining output should support global refining margins and benefit US refiners.