Russia's seaborne gasoline imports are on track for a record month as Ukrainian drone strikes disrupt refinery operations and Moscow's export restrictions tighten domestic fuel supplies, Vortexa analyst Anna Zhminko said in a Wednesday note.
Russia's gasoline imports surged to about 125,000 barrels per day in August, equivalent to a projected 470,000 metric tons for the month, Vortexa data showed. That is almost the same volume imported by Nigeria, historically a net importer of seaborne gasoline.
About 55%, or 260,000 mt, of Russia's August gasoline imports arrived on sanctioned tankers. All gasoline cargoes from India were carried by sanctioned fleets and involved dark ship-to-ship transfers in the Mediterranean.
The latest India-to-Russia cargo, involving sanctioned LR1 tankers Cyclone and Amarant, is due to arrive in Russia in early September after a ship-to-ship transfer in the Gulf of Suez. Both vessels recently switched to the Russian registry.
Overall, about 40% of Russia's August gasoline imports were moved via ship-to-ship transfers, most of which were conducted with AIS signals switched off, while Mediterranean-origin cargoes primarily sailed directly to Russia.
Russia extended its full gasoline export ban through January and its diesel export ban through Sep. 1, Zhminko said.
Meanwhile, Russian diesel and gasoil exports were broadly flat over the month at about 150,000 b/d during Aug. 1-25, down 610,000 b/d from a year earlier and 81% below the five-year seasonal average.
Ukraine has carried out 32 drone attacks on Russian refineries during July and August, or roughly one every other day.
A recent strike on the 260,000-b/d Perm refinery left only 28% of its crude distillation capacity operational, Zhminko said, citing Argus and Reuters data.
Export infrastructure has also been hit. The Black Sea accounted for 44%, or about 380,000 b/d, of Russia's diesel and gasoil exports last year.
Since a May strike, no diesel cargoes have been exported from Tuapse, Russia's third-largest diesel export port in 2025.
Even if Moscow partially lifts its diesel export ban in September, refinery and terminal disruptions are likely to prevent exports from returning to seasonal norms. Harvest demand could further constrain available diesel supplies.
Gasoline imports, meanwhile, are likely to remain elevated as Russia's historically lower gasoline production yields leave the market more exposed to supply disruptions.