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Research Alert: Pgr Q1 Eps Tops Expectations Despite Challenging Market Conditions

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CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

Progressive posted Q1 operating EPS of $4.96 vs. $4.65 in the prior year, topping our $4.83 estimate and $4.88 consensus, despite earned premium growth of 8% falling short of our 10%-15% forecast. Full-year 2025 earned premiums rose 15%, in line with our forecast, while Q1 written premiums increased 6% with policies-in-force up 9%, indicating growth from exposure rather than pricing. We think PGR's ability to produce above-peer top-line growth and best-in-class underwriting profitability provides the shares with a catalyst. Management offered no commentary as the firm does not hold regular calls. We forecast 8%-12% earned premium growth in 2026, remaining above most peers despite the competitive pricing environment. The Q1 combined ratio of 86.4% vs. 86.0% in the prior year demonstrates continued superior underwriting results vs. industry averages. We keep our Buy rating, as we believe the defensive nature of personal lines insurance and PGR's operational excellence support valuation despite pricing headwinds.

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