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Research Alert: Mos: Record Sulfur Prices Impact Margins; Reduces 2026 Capex Outlook

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CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

MOS reported a Q1 net loss of $258M vs. $238M income prior year, with adjusted EPS of $0.05 (-90% Y/Y) missing the $0.22 consensus and adjusted EBITDA of $416M (-24% Y/Y) was below the $432M consensus. Results included $323M in notable items, primarily $442M in charges from idling Brazilian operations. In our view, shares are likely to react negatively to the Q1 miss and reduced capex guidance, suggesting the company is curtailing production in a volatile environment. Management withdrew full-year phosphate production guidance and reduced 2026 capex guidance to $1.25B while announcing $50M in cost savings. Volatile conditions with elevated raw material costs compressed margins, particularly in Phosphate where sulfur costs surged above $1,200 per tonne despite 27% volume growth. Potash delivered improved results with 15% EBITDA growth to $275M on 19% higher realized prices. We expect continued pressure from raw material cost inflation and production curtailments beginning in May.

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