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Research Alert: Cop: A Q1 Beat And A Turning Of The Corner In Alaska

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CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

COP reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.89 vs. $2.09 prior year, beating the consensus of $1.71 by $0.18, while production declined 3.3% Y/Y to 2.31M boe/d but only 1% excluding acquisitions and divestitures. Average realized pricing fell 6% to $50.36/boe from $53.34/boe in Q1 '25. Key developments include the Willow project in Alaska reaching 50% completion with first oil still targeted for 2029, and continued LNG development with North Field East due for completion in the second half of 2026. COP guided 2026 production to 2.295M-2.325M boe/d (flat at midpoint) and capex of $12.0B-$12.5B, stripping out 20K boe/d from Qatar and 15K boe/d royalty adjustment from Surmont. The U.S. Lower 48 led production at 1.45M boe/d (63% of total), with Delaware Basin contributing 698K boe/d. In our view, successful completion of Willow would materially advance Alaska production from current 195K boe/d levels. COP maintained its 45% CFO return commitment, distributing $2.0B through equal portions of buybacks and dividends.

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