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Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Recommendation On Vale S.a.

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-- CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

Our unchanged 12-month target price of USD18 is driven by an EV/EBITDA of 5.0x applied to our 2027 EBITDA estimate, above VALE's three-year average forward EV/EBITDA of 3.9x but below peers' average of 6.5x. We decrease our 2026 earnings per ADS estimate by BRL0.49 to BRL10.28 and our 2027 forecast by BRL0.45 to BRL10.52. Vale demonstrated robust operational performance in Q1 2026, with production records across multiple assets supporting 3% iron ore volume growth and double-digit gains in copper and nickel. However, cost pressures from BRL appreciation and higher oil prices pushed C1 costs to $23.6/t (+12% Y/Y), leading management to guide toward the upper end of 2026 cost guidance. Vale Base Metals is delivering significant value, with EBITDA more than doubling Y/Y. With expanded net debt at $17.8B and trending toward the midpoint of the $10B-$20B target range, management expressed confidence in distributing significant dividends and continuing buybacks through 2026 under current commodity prices.

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