-- CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
Our 12-month target of $167, up $1, reflects EV/EBITDA and DCF analyses. We apply an 8.2x multiple of EV to est. 2027 EBITDA - above XOM's historical forward average but below peak levels - yielding $125 per share. Our DCF model, using medium-term free cash flow growth of 5.6% per year, terminal growth of 2.5%, discounted at a WACC of 5.9%, yields $209 per share. We cut our 2026 EPS estimate by $1.43 to $9.21 and 2027's by $0.66 to $8.07. XOM's upstream production fell 8.2% sequentially in Q1, notably in Asia, where liquids production was down 21% and natural gas production was down 31%. Some of that decline is due to damage to Qatar LNG installations that have been damaged and are likely to take three to five years to restore to pre-war condition. Absent those issues as well as Winter Storm Fern, XOM noted that its upstream production would have grown 8% in Q1. We see ongoing strength in downstream margins, but the main catalysts should be volume recovery in Asia and crude oil prices.