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Repsol Rating Climbs as AlphaValue/Baader Europe Revises Forecasts on Commodity Price Changes

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Repsol's (REP.MC) rating was upgraded as AlphaValue/Baader Europe adjusted its earnings forecast for the Spanish oil and gas giant on commodity price movements.

"We have nudged FY26, as the upgraded commodity deck feeds through to Upstream realised prices, with Brent at $95/bbl (vs $62 prior) and [Title Transfer Facility] at EUR55/MWh (vs EUR38)," analysts said Tuesday. "Volume ramp-up across Brazil, the U.S. and key projects supports EBIT, though the uplift is almost entirely absorbed by elevated cash capex (EUR4.9bn gross) and a 44.3% effective tax rate. We have trimmed FY27, as Brent eases to $72/bbl (vs $63) and TTF to EUR47/MWh (vs (Euro)40), with refining margins tightening."

As such, the 2026 EPS estimate increased by 1.51% to 3.84 euros, while the 2027 forecast was cut by 6.57% to 3.26 euros.

The rating was raised to buy from add with a price target of 30.8 euros.

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