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Renewed US-Iran Hostilities Raise Strait of Hormuz Risks, TPH Energy Says

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Renewed US-Iran hostilities lifted Brent about 6% from Monday's close after President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire over, raising the risk of prolonged disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, TPH Energy said in a Wednesday note.

After Iranian drones targeted three tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the US revoked Iran's oil and petrochemical export ban waiver, effective July 17, and launched retaliatory strikes, according to the note.

Launching its largest military operation since the April ceasefire, the US Central Command struck more than 80 Iranian assets, including air defense systems, coastal radar sites, command and control infrastructure, anti-ship missile capabilities and more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats, TPH Energy said.

Calling the US strikes a violation of the memorandum of understanding, Iran retaliated by targeting more than 85 US military sites, including bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, the note added.

Iran continues to argue that the memorandum of understanding granted it control over the Strait of Hormuz and requires vessels to secure its approval before transiting, a position the US and its allies continue to reject.

At the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit, Trump declared the ceasefire over and said negotiating with Iran was a waste of time.

Investor concerns over renewed military exchanges and Trump's latest comments pushed Brent about 6% above Monday's close, highlighting growing geopolitical risks, according to the note.

TPH Energy said oil prices could rise further if fighting intensifies beyond the current exchanges and the ceasefire collapses completely, increasing the risk of disruptions to crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

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