Renewed attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz are threatening maritime security just as Middle East Gulf crude flows begin to recover and a large wave of delayed shipments moves toward Asian markets, Kpler analyst Yui Torikata said in a Wednesday note.
Torikata said a report from the UK Maritime Trade Operations indicated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked two commercial vessels traveling through the US-backed southern Omani route in the Strait of Hormuz.
The incident has raised fresh concerns over the fragile restoration of shipping security through the strategic chokepoint, which had allowed over 55 million barrels of crude to transit the strait during the first six days of July.
The early July flows reflect two parallel developments: the return of regular Middle East Gulf exports and the release of crude cargoes stranded since before April amid the wider regional crisis.
Of the 55 million barrels that crossed Hormuz in the first week of July, about 16 million barrels represented delayed pre-April cargoes that had remained trapped.
On Monday alone, over 13 million barrels of stranded crude successfully passed through the chokepoint aboard seven very large crude carriers bound for Japan and South Korea.
The latest clearances bring the total volume of delayed pre-April crude that has moved through Hormuz to roughly 70 million barrels, including 54 million barrels cleared in June and 16 million barrels in July.
The accumulated supply is expected to arrive in Asia by early August, creating significant near-term oversupply pressure in key markets.
Japan is set to receive the largest share of the delayed volumes at around 18 million barrels, followed by South Korea with 12 million barrels, India with 9 million barrels, and China with 8 million barrels.
The additional arrivals will add to already substantial crude inflows through alternative routes, including exports from Yanbu, Fujairah, Oman, and the US Gulf Coast. Japan and South Korea, for example, are each importing about 2.1 million barrels per day through these channels.
However, the renewed IRGC attacks have cast doubt on whether future shipments can continue moving safely through the strait.
With about 10 million barrels of non-Iranian pre-April crude still stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, traders need to reassess immediate transit risks.