Alberta aims to position itself as the premier location for building artificial intelligence (AI) data centers in North America, said TD.
However, limited electric grid capacity is slowing development, writes the bank in a note to clients.
Although the province has abundant natural-gas resources, expansion of gas generation is challenged by global turbine shortages and rising capital costs of new gas generation, points out TD.
The global gas-turbine market is dominated by a handful of companies. The major manufacturers are said to be facing order backlogs stretching over five years for large turbines. Wait times for smaller turbines are shorter but rising. Equipment shortages have already contributed to the cancellation of gas power plant projects in the United States.
Given the huge volume of data-center capacity seeking to connect to the Alberta grid, the province is exploring a 'bring your own generation' model as an interim solution, states the bank. While new gas generation is the preferred resource for powering surging AI-energy demand as seen in the U.S., ongoing gas-turbine shortages could create opportunities for other sources of power, including renewables.
For some of the Alberta data-center projects, solar and wind could offer a relatively faster pathway to meet their electricity demand. In addition, battery costs have been falling steadily, reaching their lowest level in 2025, down 27% from 2024, which makes hybrid renewable-battery projects more cost competitive, adds TD. Storage helps firm up intermittent generation from solar and wind, making the hybrid systems better suited to power data centers, though grid backup will still be necessary.
However, uncertainty around power project economics will likely persist for some time as disruptions to gas and critical mineral supply chains caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will take months to resolve, assuming the new deal between the U.S. and Iran leads to lasting peace, according to the bank.