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Record US Ethanol Exports in Last 2 Years Face Wildcards in 2026, USDA Says

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The US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service reported Tuesday that over the past two years, US ethanol exports reached record volumes and values.

This growth was fueled by rising global demand for ethanol imports and reduced competition from Brazil, the world's second-largest ethanol exporter.

Top ethanol-importing markets like Canada, Europe, the UK, India, Colombia, and the Philippines increased ethanol consumption, driving global import demand higher, according to the FAS report.

At the same time, strong domestic fuel ethanol demand in Brazil reduced exportable supplies and raised domestic prices, allowing the US to increase export share to a growing market.

While 2026 US ethanol exports are ahead of last year's record pace through June, a handful of wildcards could greatly affect exports through the rest of the year.

Changing US and global biofuel policies, the emergence and implementation of new trade agreements, and the effects of high energy prices from the conflict in the Middle East could all significantly affect 2026 US ethanol exports.

The first major driver of record US ethanol exports during the past two years was growing import demand in the world's largest ethanol-consuming markets.

In 2024, US ethanol export volumes reached record levels in seven of its top 10 markets, resulting in a record export volume of 7.4 billion liters or 1.9 billion gallons and a record value of $4.3 billion.

In 2025, US ethanol export volumes reached new records in five of the top 10 markets, again resulting in a record export volume of 8.4 billion liters or 2.2 billion gallons and a record value of $4.7 billion.

Canada, the world's top ethanol importer, accounts for over one-third of US ethanol exports. US ethanol exports to Canada reached a record 2.7 billion liters, or 700 million gallons, in 2024 and again reached 3.1 billion liters, or 829 million gallons, in 2025, according to the FAS report.

US ethanol exports to the UK jumped to record highs in 2024 and 2025, to 1.1 billion liters or 280 million gallons and 1.3 billion liters or 355 million gallons, because the UK implemented E10 gasoline in 2021 and the US signed the US-UK Prosperity Deal in the summer of 2025.

As a result, US ethanol gained duty-free access to the UK market for 1.4 billion liters or 370 million gallons, which was prorated to 913 million liters or 241 million gallons in 2025.

US ethanol exports to the EU also set new records in 2024 and 2025, at 589 million liters or 156 million gallons and 836 million liters or 221 million gallons, respectively, according to the FAS.

US industrial ethanol exports to India reached a new record in 2024 at 718 million liters or 190 million gallons. In 2025, exports fell slightly below the previous record at 711 million liters or 188 million gallons.

US ethanol exports to Colombia reached a record at 513 million liters or 136 million gallons in 2024. In 2025, US export volumes declined slightly but were still the second-highest ever to Colombia.

US ethanol exports to the Philippines reached a new record in 2025 at 382 million liters or 101 million gallons, making the country the sixth-largest market for US ethanol.

In addition to growing global demand for ethanol, the US benefited from reduced export competition from Brazil during the past two years, according to the FAS report.

The two countries are by far the largest ethanol exporters, accounting for two-thirds to three-fourths of global exports each year.

In 2025, the US share grew to 64%, and Brazil fell to 12%. In absolute terms, Brazil exported 955 million fewer liters, or 252 million gallons, in 2025 compared with 2023, despite growing global import demand.

As a result, US exporters benefited, increasing export volumes by 3 billion liters or 803 million gallons over the same period.

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